BN-PH vote transfer almost a reality - IDE

SHAH ALAM - Barisan Nasional’s (BN) victory in the Mahkota by-election with a majority exceeding 20,000 votes demonstrates the improving collaboration between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) within the unity government coalition.

Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) senior research manager Khairul Arifin Mohd Munir said this success enabled the coalition’s candidate, Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah to win 121 voting streams and 18 out of 20 polling centres, as well as securing postal and early votes.

Among the polling centre that were previously controlled by PH but have now shifted to BN were Kg Tengah, Taman Lian Seng, Hj Manan, Bandar Tengah, Taman Ilham, Taman Kerjasama, Taman Suria and Indah Jaya.

"This significant victory for BN also highlights PH’s success in shifting 17 per cent or 11,445 of its supporters to vote for BN, allowing them to continue this collaboration in the upcoming 16th General Election (GE16).

"Meanwhile, BN managed to bring out 25 per cent (16,611) of its voters from the 2022 state election in this by-election," he said.

He said BN’s main contender in the 2024 by-elections, Perikatan Nasional (PN) managed to retain its core voter base, securing 7,347 votes, a number close to the 7,614 votes it garnered in the 2022 state election.

"This victory also indicates an increase in Malay support for the BN-PH coalition in the Mahkota by-election by four per cent, bringing the overall support to 76 per cent, compared to just 72 per cent during the 2022 state election," he added.

FACTORS BEHIND BN'S VICTORY:

1. Young candidate

2. Local individual who appeals to voters

3. Fluent in Mandarin

4. Support from party machinery and PH vote transfer to BN

5. Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi factor

6. Role of DAP-Kluang MP Wong Shu Qi and DAP-Kulai MP Teo Nie Ching

7. Ineffectiveness of national issues raised by the opposition

8. Internal problems within Pas and Bersatu

9. PN’s incomplete campaign

10. PN’s machinery lacked determination in campaigning