BN poised for Mahkota by-election victory, but voter turnout crucial - Analysts

KLUANG - Barisan Nasional (BN) is well-positioned to retain the Mahkota seat in the upcoming by-election, but political analysts say the size of the victory will largely depend on voter turnout.

Political analyst G. Manimaran expressed confidence in BN's chances citing the party’s stability and well-organised machinery.

"BN has a good and better chance of retaining the seat. The Umno BN coalition is more stable now compared to two years ago.

"In any by-election, one of the coalitions with a strong systematic network is Umno from BN. They have better machinery and they can mobilise their resources well, especially during by-elections.

"Their workers are in every corner of Mahkota," he told Sinar Daily.

Manimaran highlighted BN's recent victories in challenging seats like Pelangai and Nenggiri, noting that Mahkota's diverse demographic created a favourable environment for BN.

He said Kluang was a mixed area and with the backing of coalition parties, BN could win.

However, Manimaran said that the real challenge would be the voter turnout since most of the outstation voters were working in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

"The question now is whether BN can achieve a majority of 5,000 votes, more or less.

"This depends on whether outstation voters return to cast their votes. Voter turnout is expected to hover around 55 to 57 per cent, with a maximum of 60 per cent," Manimaran said.

He also said higher turnout, especially from outstation voters, could lead to a bigger win.

"Either they win big or small; it depends on the voters’ turnout," he added.

Meanwhile, another political analyst, James Chin, also predicted a likely BN victory but cautioned about a potential dip in Chinese support.

"It’s very likely that BN will win, but the Chinese support might decrease slightly. The question is whether that decrease will be significant enough to affect the BN candidate’s chances," Chin said.

He attributed this to the fact that Pas has historically struggled in Johor, particularly in urban and mixed constituencies like Mahkota.

"Pas has never been strong in Johor, and it’s quite obvious that there’s also a candidate factor here. BN candidate Syed Hussein is much more popular and he is acceptable within the Chinese community," he said.

He said Johorean Chinese voters have traditionally been more sympathetic towards DAP, but this was not expected to hurt BN’s prospects significantly.

"The Chinese community in Johor is generally more supportive of DAP, but I don’t think that will be a major problem in terms of BN winning the election," he said.

With the election just days away, both analysts agreed that while BN was positioned for victory, the voter turnout would be the ultimate decider of whether the win was by a narrow or wide margin.

The dynamics of outstation voters, particularly, remained a key variable in this contest.