Mahkota by-election: Chinese voter turnout in question due to Umno-DAP dispute
An analyst has highlighted that the verbal sparring between Dr Akmal and Teresa is one of the primary reasons Chinese voters feel uncomfortable supporting the BN candidate.
SHAH ALAM – The ongoing dispute between Umno Youth Chief Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh and DAP vice chairman Teresa Kok could result in many Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters, particularly Chinese voters, choosing to abstain from voting in the upcoming Mahkota state assembly by-election in Johor this Saturday.
Sunway University's political analyst, Professor Dr Wong Chin Huat Wong Chin Huat suggested that this situation mirrors the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) by-election, where Dr Akmal's persistent attacks over the issue of socks bearing the name of Allah caused a similar stir.
However, Wong noted that a previous misstep by a former Pas Youth Chief, who attacked Chinese education, had actually benefited the DAP candidate in KKB, leading to an surprising victory for PH.
“When Pas avoided repeating that mistake, the reduction in Chinese votes was noticeable during the Sungai Bakap by-election.
"Since Pas was expected to retain the seat, the impact of lower Chinese voter turnout was minimal,” he said.
Wong added that Dr Akmal’s current attacks on Teresa ahead of the Mahkota by-election exacerbated tensions, making Chinese voters hesitant to support Umno.
“Chinese voters feel that if they vote for Umno, it may be perceived as a tacit endorsement of Akmal's behavior,” Wong said.
Wong made these remarks when asked about the potential for Chinese voters, particularly DAP supporters, to boycott the Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah in the Mahkota by-election due to the ongoing legal dispute between Dr Akmal and Teresa.
Concerns are rising that this situation could reduce the chances of Syed Hussien, retaining the seat left vacant by the late Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain.
Chinese voters, who represent approximately 35 per cent of the 66,318 registered voters in the Mahkota state constituency, could significantly impact the election's outcome if they abstain.
Wong also pointed out that the situation has been further aggravated by comments from Johor Umno Deputy Chairman Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed who presented three theories for the low turnout among Chinese voters.
“First, Nur Jazlan attributed the low turnout to opportunism.
"Second, he claimed that Chinese voters are racist for not supporting non-Chinese candidates, despite their previous support for a Malay Amanah candidate.
"Lastly, he blamed DAP for ineffective campaigning,” Wong said.
Ilham Centre's Chief Researcher Associate Professor Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim highlighted that the verbal sparring between Dr Akmal and Teresa is one of the primary reasons Chinese voters feel uncomfortable supporting the BN candidate.
He added that many non-Malay voters are disinterested in the by-election, believing that it would not significantly alter the political landscape in Johor or at the federal level.
Yusri said it wouldn't be surprising if many outstation voters, including those working in the Klang Valley, Penang, or Singapore, decided not to return to Johor to vote on Saturday.
“Therefore, I disagree with the assumption that the majority of non-Malay voters, particularly the Chinese, will cast protest votes for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate, Mohamad Haizan Jaafar, to reject the BN candidate.
"Instead, I foresee a fierce competition between BN and PN to win the support of Malay voters, who make up over 50 per cent of the constituency’s electorate,” he said.
He further added that PN’s chances of winning the Mahkota by-election are slim due to Pas’ lack of enthusiasm in campaigning for the PN candidate from Bersatu.
He said PN has not focused on engaging non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, who are typically loyal DAP supporters.
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali revealed that BN’s chances of securing a larger majority in the Mahkota by-election have diminished due to recent developments, including the dispute between Dr Akmal and Teresa.
He said that the public spat between the two leaders had disheartened many Chinese voters, leading them to consider abstaining from the vote.
“If a significant number of Chinese voters do not turn out, it will impact the BN candidate's chances of achieving a large victory.
"As a result, I predict that BN will win with a majority of less than 7,000 votes, compared to their 2022 state election victory margin of over 5,000 votes,” Mazlan added.
