Zahid rebounds with Nenggiri win, Muhyiddin's position shaken in Bersatu
Considered the underdog with low expectations, Umno and BN represented by their candidate Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani, surprised many by reclaiming their traditional seat from Perikatan Nasional.
SHAH ALAM - The Nenggiri by-election results in Kelantan may seem insignificant to the general public, but they carry profound implications for the two leading Malay parties, Umno and Bersatu.
Considered the underdog with low expectations, Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN), represented by their candidate Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani, surprised many by reclaiming their traditional seat from Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Despite various explanations for BN's first seat flip since the 15th General Election (GE15), the victory in Nenggiri provided a significant morale boost for Umno.
For Bersatu, their defeat in Nenggiri has triggered debate among political analysts about whether the party and PN can maintain the momentum of the 'green wave' until the 16th General Election (GE16).
The shift in the influence of the presidents of Umno and Bersatu seems to have begun, even though the election outcome involved just one state assembly seat.
Umno President Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who faced severe criticism and was 'despised' by many Umno grassroots members for leading the party into the Unity Government post-GE15, is seeing a gradual improvement in perception among the over three million party members.
This shift was evident during the Umno General Assembly, where 6,433 delegates from across the country showed enthusiasm for Zahid's keynote speech, in which he pledged to seek the release of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
The Umno General Assembly 2024, organised without inviting any leaders from the Unity Government, including Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, was also viewed as a strategic move by Umno's leadership to win back core supporters who had been previously disappointed.
Umno Youth Information Chief Mohammad Sollehin Mohamad Tajie stated that Zahid’s keynote address indicated the party's efforts to regain dominance in the future.
“He (Zahid) also managed to appease Umno members by clarifying that Umno has yet to determine any formal cooperation with the Unity Government.
"I consider that statement very significant in reducing tensions between the party wings and the leadership.
"I believe the grassroots perception of Zahid has also changed,” he said.
Based on this scenario, the Bukit Gantang Umno Division Chief believes the upcoming Mahkota by-election on Sept 24 will reflect the current level of confidence among Umno's core supporters.
A Different Fate for Muhyiddin
While Zahid's influence in Umno is on the rise, Bersatu President Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin faces a different situation.
The defeat in Nenggiri has not only fueled speculation of a split within Bersatu and PN but also led to police investigations into the PN Chairman's speech during the by-election campaign last week, which allegedly touched on the 3Rs (race, religion, and royalty), putting Muhyiddin in a difficult position.
Adding to this, PN's Nenggiri by-election Operations Director Tan Sri Annuar Musa claimed that over 2,000 of the coalition's supporters did not vote, further fueling rumours that Bersatu is now divided into two camps: the Muhyiddin camp and the Selangor Bersatu Chief Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali's camp, leading to possible sabotage.
Controversial blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin in a YouTube broadcast described the Nenggiri by-election as having turned into a Bersatu leadership campaign by most of the party's leaders, with reports that Azmin was barred from attending the candidate's campaign programme.
If these developments hold true, Muhyiddin may face pressure to maintain his position as Bersatu President or PN Chairman ahead of the party's leadership elections in October.
In his keynote address at the Bersatu Convention in Selayang on July 13, Muhyiddin proposed distributing key positions to three of the party's top leaders: Azmin, Deputy President Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu, and Secretary-General Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin.
Rumours that Azmin rejected the offer of Secretary-General, with Hamzah likely to be appointed Deputy President, could turn into a significant challenge for Muhyiddin if not managed carefully.
However, talks of a split within Bersatu after the Nenggiri by-election were quickly dismissed by Supreme Leadership Council member Mohd Rafiq Mohd Abdullah.
The Kuang assemblyman clarified that Muhyiddin's proposal to determine the positions of the three key Bersatu leaders—Hamzah, Faizal, and Azmin—was accepted with grace.
Rafiq also dismissed claims that Muhyiddin's influence in Bersatu and PN had diminished following the Nenggiri defeat.
"If the Nenggiri seat is used as a benchmark for the decline in Muhyiddin's influence, I believe that formula does not make sense.
"If Umno and the Unity Government dare, let them hold by-elections in the seats of six Bersatu Members of Parliament who defected.
"Only the by-elections in those six seats can serve as a real indicator of whether support for PN among the Malay community is declining," he said.
