Nenggiri and Zahid's future
BN and Bersatu candidates are hopeful for victory on Aug 17, but for BN, this by-election is a chance for it to restore its reputation after losing the seat in the state election, last year.
SHAH ALAM - Anticipation is growing for the candidates, with only one day left before 20,259 registered voters in the Nenggiri state assembly cast their ballots in the by-election.
The Nenggiri by-election will see a direct contest between Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani, representing the unity government, and Mohd Rizwadi Ismail from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), representing Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Both candidates were hopeful for victory on Aug 17, but for BN, this by-election was a chance to restore its reputation after losing the seat in the state election (PRN) last year.
At that time, PN's Bersatu candidate Mohd Azizi Abu Naim won with a narrow majority of 810 votes against BN's Ab Aziz Yusoff.
The Nenggiri by-election is a challenging battleground for both BN and PN and is difficult to predict.
However, a victory for BN would be significant for its chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
A win for Umno's candidate was crucial to give meaning to the Umno General Assembly (PAU) 2024, which will be held four days after the Nenggiri voting.
According to Research firm O2 Research Malaysia (O2) chief researcher Anis Anwar Suhaimi, if BN successfully reclaims the Nenggiri seat, it will send a positive signal and revive the spirit of Umno's grassroots.
"A BN victory would boost the morale of Umno's grassroots, indicating that the future and survival of the party in the current political cooperation hold bright prospects.
"However, the impact of such a potential victory on Zahid depends on the level of involvement and how his image contributes to the win," he told Sinar.
He emphasised that by comparison, during the post-14th General Election (GE14), Datuk Seri Najib Razak's role, especially on social media, was able to boost campaign spirit and voter turnout among Umno members, leading to victory.
"Whatever the factors, if BN wins in Nenggiri, it can be justified that the party's leadership remains relevant and not the source of Umno's weaknesses as suggested by others," he added.
However, he said it would not be surprising if the Nenggiri by-election results did not favour the BN candidate.
"This is because the pattern of voter behaviour post-15th General Election (GE15) is stabilising and consolidating towards specific parties. There is no longer the uncertainty seen in GE15.
"Throughout the election series from the 2023 state elections to now, the patterns and trends in voter behaviour have remained stable.
"The difference lies in the mood of the election campaign and the level of voter satisfaction with the performance of their party leaders, which will influence whether they turn out to vote or not. But only a slight change in votes is expected," he said.
Given this trend, Umno faced a bigger challenge to reclaim the Nenggiri seat, even though it was once a stronghold, similar to the situation with Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in the Sungai Bakap by-election.
"If this happens, it goes beyond Zahid's leadership and Umno's image itself, but sends a clear message to the Federal Government as a whole.
"However, for Zahid, a loss may be seen as a form of political pressure but not the end of his legacy," he added.
Anis said Zahid was known as a skilled and experienced politician, even capable of becoming the second highest leader in the country after being in a very pressured situation before GE15.
Benefits for Zahid
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Kedah political science lecturer Firdaus Ramli said a BN victory in the Nenggiri state seat could help the party build a narrative that Malays were returning to support Umno and accepting the collaboration formed through the unity government at the national level.
He said the victory would also be highly desired by Umno, especially in facing the upcoming Mahkota state by-election next month, as well as helping to restore the party's image and remain relevant in politics.
"A victory in Nenggiri would also provide Zahid with benefits and momentum to continue leading Umno until the next election.
"This is because he has been criticised by opponents both within and outside Umno as being responsible for Umno's poor performance in past elections.
"This win would help restore his image as Umno's leader among the grassroots and at the BN component level," he added.
If Umno loses, he said, it would certainly be used by division leaders and Umno Supreme Council members to urge him to step down before the next election.
"Therefore, Zahid has clearly stated in his campaigns that federal agencies will assist in developing the Nenggiri state assembly if given the mandate in the election.
"Recognising that voters are now more discerning in evaluating election offers, BN's machinery is also cautious in making promises, offering only what the federal government and its agencies can deliver,” he said.
