Nenggiri polls: Voter turnout key in determining outcome - Analysts
This by-election might be more intense, giving a smaller majority than that recorded in the last state election.
GUA MUSANG - Voter turnout will be a major factor in determining whether Barisan Nasional (BN) can wrest back the Nenggiri state seat from Perikatan Nasional (PN) this Saturday, according to analysts.
BN held the seat for four consecutive terms after it was first contested in 2004 but lost to PN by just 810 votes in the 15th Kelantan state election in August last year.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said one of the factors for BN's loss in the state election was the low voter turnout of 61 per cent.
"If the voter turnout is high this time, InsyaAllah, BN has a good chance of winning," he told Bernama.
In last August's state polls, BN candidate Ab Aziz Yussof failed to retain the seat, losing to PN candidate Mohd Azizi Abu Naim, who contested under the Pas logo.
This Saturday's by-election is a straight fight between BN's Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani, representing the Unity Government, and Pas candidate Mohd Rizwadi Ismail, contesting for PN.
However, Azmi said this by-election might be more intense, giving a smaller majority than that recorded in the last state election.
Political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian agreed, stating that BN's chances depend on how well its loyal voters turn out and whether it can avoid protest votes.
He said BN would have a good chance of winning if outstation voters return to cast their ballots and there is increased support from the Orang Asli community.
"To prevent any last-minute shift of support to the opposing party, BN's machinery must continuously play its role to ensure there is no sabotage on polling day at polling district centres (PDM),” he said.
"This is also not a Ku Li (Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah) vs. Annuar Musa (Tan Sri Annuar Musa) by-election; or a federal vs. state battle, but rather a test of how well both BN and PN can regain Malay support, as the previous majority was thin," he said.
In this by-election, there are 20,259 registered voters, with 86 per cent being Malay, 14 per cent Orang Asli, 0.2 per cent Chinese, and 0.1 per cent Indian.
Sixty-one per cent of the voters are young, under the age of 39.
Political analyst Prof Dr Mohd Izani Mohd Zain said that after almost two weeks of campaigning, Kelantan Umno Youth chief Mohd Azmawi Fikri and Mohd Rizwadi were seen as having equal chances of winning.
"Whatever the outcome, it will not change the position of the Pas government in Kelantan, but a BN victory is crucial as a catalyst for Umno's strength in Kelantan, especially in Gua Musang, a traditional stronghold of Umno," he said.
The Universiti Malaysia Terengganu deputy vice-chancellor (Student Affairs and Alumni) also believes that, given the demographics, local issues will influence voters more than national issues.
Meanwhile, Umno veteran Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, or Ku Li as he is affectionately known, said it is difficult to gauge how much outstation voters could influence the by-election results.
"I don't think many outstation voters will return. Maybe because this is not an election that will determine the government; the government is already in place, and this is just about filling a vacant seat.
"The seat became vacant because the mandate was given to someone who tried to represent the area, but that person is no longer affiliated with a party. Therefore, it was declared vacant," the former Gua Musang MP of 12 terms told Bernama.
Kelantan State Assembly Speaker Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah declared the seat vacant on June 19 after he was informed that Mohd Azizi ceased to be a member of Bersatu on June 13.
This is the ninth by-election following the 15th general election, with previous by-elections held in Kuala Terengganu (Parliament); Simpang Jeram and Pulai (Johor); Pelangai (Pahang); Jepak (Sarawak); Kemaman (Terengganu); Kuala Kubu Baharu (Selangor); and Sungai Bakap (Penang). - BERNAMA
