Could Umno be Pas' key to winning GE16?

SHAH ALAM - Speculation about cooperation between Umno and its splinter party, Pas, has been a topic of discussion since the era of the second prime minister, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.

The establishment of Barisan Nasional (BN) in 1974 during Abdul Razak’s administration saw Pas agree to join the Umno-led coalition.

However, the relationship between these two major Malay parties had always been unique, with their rivalry leading to chronic division among the Malays, yet at times, their unity has created significant historical moments for the indigenous community.

For example, the strong takfiri culture led to divisions between Pas and Umno supporters following the ‘Amanat Haji Hadi’ controversy in 1981.

However, everything changed with the signing of the Muafakat Nasional (MN) charter on Sept 14, 2019.

This marked the rise of the MN wave, which local political observers largely viewed as a catalyst for the fall of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) 1.0 Government in March 2020.

Today, MN is just a part of history. Although not officially dissolved, many Umno leaders consider the political cooperation of MN to have ended after BN agreed to join the Unity Government led by PH after the 15th General Election (GE15).

Furthermore, Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi himself confirmed that the party and BN would continue their political cooperation with PH in GE16.

He also emphasised that Umno would not negotiate any cooperation with Pas as long as Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang, remains at the helm of the party.

Thus, when Pas information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari confirmed rumours that his party had held several meetings with Umno leaders to discuss possible political cooperation for GE16, the news sparked various reactions.

For some Pas leaders, including Mursyidul Am Datuk Hashim Jasin, the door for Umno-Pas cooperation has never closed. However, some pro-Zahid Umno leaders, consider the speculation ‘impossible.’

Grassroots versus Umno leaders

However, the voice of Umno's grassroots seems to react differently.

In the ongoing Umno division meetings, Kluang Umno concluded that the party’s cooperation with DAP through the Unity government was detrimental, while Tenggara Umno proposed that the Umno-DAP relationship be reviewed.

Following this, a political analyst from Universiti Malaya, Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali, believes that Umno is now at a crossroads.

This scenario is visible, as there is a significant contradiction between Umno's top leadership decisions and the grassroots sentiment of the party.

“I see the perspective of Umno-Pas relations as reflecting the overall landscape of Malay-based Malaysian politics.

“For the first time, we saw the entire Malay community united under BN’s banner when Pas agreed to join in 1974, followed by the establishment of MN, which significantly strengthened grassroots Malay voter relations nationwide.

“Therefore, whenever the idea of Umno-Pas cooperation arises, even if it's a hundred times, it still captures public attention because it involves the narrative of Malay politics,” he said.

Commenting on the differing views of Umno's top leadership and the party's grassroots, Asri acknowledged that the polite nature of Malay politics would not encourage grassroots members to confront leaders directly as other communities might.

Thus, when Zahid seemed to use a veto to propose that BN-PH cooperation continue in GE16, a small number of Umno leaders began to criticise him subtly.

“That’s why we are seeing some Umno divisions proposing to review Umno-DAP cooperation.

“These voices subtly signal that some Umno leaders are beginning to question Zahid’s position within the party and the unity government.

“They indirectly state that the main obstacle to Umno-Pas cooperation is Zahid,” he said.

“From Pas' perspective, the Islamic party recognises the added value Umno-BN can bring to ensure PN can capture Putrajaya in GE16.

“In simple terms, Pas knows their shortcut to power is by inviting BN to form an electoral coalition with PN.

“They realise PN cannot win GE16 alone. With the momentum of the green wave remaining consistent, if another capable component party like BN joins Pas, it also becomes a key ticket for acceptance by native parties in Sabah and Sarawak in the future,” said Asri.

Open Survey

Meanwhile, former Selangor Menteri Besar, Dr Mohamad Khir Toyo, emphasised that a party’s survival would only continue if it truly listened to the grassroots voice.

Therefore, in the context of Umno-BN’s dilemma on maintaining cooperation with PH in GE16, he suggested that the leadership conduct an open survey allowing 3.44 million members to provide feedback on the issue.

“Regarding Pas' intention to court Umno, I believe the party’s goal is not just to win GE16, but they are considering the larger future of the Malay community.

“They are aware that a country's economic sector cannot be controlled solely by one race within the country. Such a situation would create tension and dissatisfaction among the majority race.

“In Malaysia, this situation occurs because the Malays and Indians are not as united as the Chinese.

“Pas realises they need to cooperate with Umno because the Malays need to think as the Chinese do.

“The Malays need to support a party that truly benefits the efforts of racial unity,” he emphasised.