'Green Wave' expected to continue in Nenggiri, but with a slim majority - Analyst

SHAH ALAM - The upcoming Nenggiri by-election sees Bersatu in Kelantan determined to secure a significant win.

Kelantan Bersatu's chairman Datuk Kamarudin Md Nor emphasised the importance of maintaining the momentum from Perikatan Nasional's (PN) victory in the Sungai Bakap by-election, aiming for a majority of 3,200 votes in Nenggiri.

However, the challenge lies in overcoming the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which has nominated Kelantan Umno Youth Chief Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani as their candidate.

Universiti Sains Malaysia Political Science lecturer Dr Zaharul Abdullah expressed confidence in Bersatu's prospects, noting that national issues such as Umno's collaboration with DAP, subsidy targeting, the rising cost of living, the sale of Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) shares to GIP-BlackRock, and the party-hopping issue favour Bersatu.

"These issues have not been well-handled by the government, creating opportunities for BN-PH," he told Sinar when contacted.

Zaharul believes the green wave will continue in Nenggiri, with Umno voters likely to shift their support to PN.

However, he considered achieving a 3,200-vote majority ambitious due to anticipated low voter turnout.

"This is because the voter turnout percentage will remain low, similar to the 2023 State Election as some outstation voters will not return to vote.

"Although there will be an increase in the shift of Umno voters to PN, it will not happen on a large scale. I see that Umno still has strength there," he said.

He also noted that Bersatu needs to leverage the Pas machinery for campaigning and focus on national and local issues.

Bersatu's touted candidate, Sheikh Razali Hamad, the former Gua Musang Umno Youth Chief, is seen as a suitable local candidate with political experience.

"He is a local candidate with political experience that enables him to be comfortable and serve the community well.

"However, Sheikh Razali needs to be well accepted by Pas to facilitate the campaign process," he said.

Betrayal issue

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya Political Science Public Administration lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub also agreed that Bersatu has a chance to retain the Nenggiri seat, but it is quite impossible to achieve a large majority.

"Bersatu should not daydream about getting a majority of 3,200 votes when even Umno members are still considering voting for Bersatu's candidate.

"This is because Bersatu is a splinter of Umno, and the incumbent from Bersatu is tainted by the betrayal issue.

"Bersatu's candidate, on the other hand, needs to work harder because the Pas machinery is not overly obsessed with helping since the candidate is not from their party," he said.

Tawfik said that Bersatu needs to formulate a solid strategy to attract support and votes from the 2,700 Orang Asli there.

"If Bersatu can attract 50 per cent support from the Orang Asli community, I see PN can win easily, although the majority may not be as large as in the Sungai Bakap by-election.

"Meanwhile, factors that can help PN win include national issues, rising prices, the cost of living, and the ongoing rejection of support for Umno," he said.

He also noted that the influence of former Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah should not be underestimated.

"Many voters in the Gua Musang Parliament, especially in Nenggiri, still remember Ku Li's contributions, as seen in his narrow defeat in the 15th General Election.

"However, it is hoped that PN leaders can change their strategy by nominating an individual from Pas because some voters are still angry with Bersatu due to the betrayal by their representative.

"The Pas machinery will work harder and be more enthusiastic if the candidate is from their party.

"Umno members and supporters are also more comfortable voting for a Pas candidate compared to Bersatu, as Bersatu is a splinter party from Umno, and naturally, they have not forgotten the old betrayal," said Tawfik.

Intense competition

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre Executive Director Hisommudin Bakar said the Nenggiri by-election will feature intense competition between PN and Umno-BN.

"PN needs to ensure that their targeted voters come out as much as possible to prevent Umno-BN from capturing this seat.

"Umno-BN, on the other hand, hopes to win this seat to reinforce the narrative that the party has lost the support of the Malay voter segment," he said.

On the chances of winning candidates, Hisommudin said that in areas like Nenggiri, the tendency for voters to vote based on party identification is higher than other factors.

"The competition in Nenggiri sees the struggle of a party being a more dominant factor, while current issues will complement and strengthen voter confidence," he said.