50-50 chance for PH and PN in Sungai Bakap by-election - Analysts

SHAH ALAM - The Sungai Bakap by-election is heating up as both Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalitions announce their candidates.

PH has named PKR memeber and former Aminuddin Baki Institute Northern Branch director Dr Joohari Ariffin, as their candidate.

Meanwhile, PN has chosen Nibong Tebal Pas Vice President Abidin Ismail to defend the Sungai Bakap state seat previously held by the late Nor Zamri Latiff.

On paper, the chances of the PH and PN candidates winning the Sungai Bakap by-election are 50-50.

This projection is based on various factors, including both candidates being prominent local figures.

It is not surprising that the PH-BN and PN coalitions took swift action by announcing their candidates a week ahead of Nomination Day, on June 22.

Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociology lecturer at the School of Social Sciences Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said that one of the determining factors for any party's victory in the Sungai Bakap state seat is how well the PH and PN candidates can rally hardcore supporters and sway undecided voters.

Sivamurugan said that Abidin, representing PN, has the advantage of being a well-known local leader with extensive experience in the Sungai Bakap, having previously served as a special officer to the late Nor Zamri.

However, the Nibong Tebal Pas Vice President faces a significant challenge in defending the state seat, as Joohari, as the Unity Government candidate, wields the strength of the state and Federal Government machinery.

Therefore, Sivamurugan noted that Abidin would need the cooperation and assistance of the entire PN machinery, including from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan), along with the overall strength of Pas.

Unlike Joohari, the PH candidate has unique advantages and does not face much pressure, having entered the race as an underdog.

"Joohari also appears to have the complete winning package, not only as a local but also with his own credibility and reputation, having held various positions in public service, such as being appointed as the Aminuddin Baki Institute Northern Branch Director, serving as an educator, and having a background in religious education.

"Joohari has also made it clear from the outset that he will not engage in character assassination or personal attacks against his opponent and promises to run an integrity-driven and moral campaign.

"This emphasis could add value and appeal to voters, especially public servants, to elect him as the Sungai Bakap State Assemblyman on the polling day, July 6," he noted.

Sivamurugan added that Joohari's strong religious education background could rival the Pas candidate, as he was once an active Angkatan Belia Islam Malaysia (Abim) member.

Sivamurugan also does not rule out the possibility that the PH-BN coalition's decision to announce Joohari's candidacy two weeks ahead of Nomination Day was to prevent any internal sabotage from those not selected as candidates.

"This means PKR has considered the possibility of internal sabotage within the party, and a two-week period is sufficient to ease tensions, anxiety and dissatisfaction among PKR leaders who were not selected as candidates," he stressed.

Majority of Malay Voters

Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer at the Perdana Centre, Razak Faculty of Technology and Informatics Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said he sees the chances of PH and PN winning the Sungai Bakap seat as balanced or 50-50.

Mazlan noted that PN has the advantage of maintaining the status quo in the Sungai Bakap as they held the seat with a majority of over 1,500 votes in the last state election.

Mazlan said the Sungai Bakap seat is a majority Malay voter area, most of whom were PN supporters in the 15th General Election (GE) and the last state election.

"I think the Green Wave is still strong in northern Peninsular Malaysia, thereby increasing Pas's chances of maintaining the status quo in the Sungai Bakap in the by-election.

"However, PH also has a chance to claim the seat based on the trend of increasing support from Malay voters and public servants, including postal voters, for the Madani Government in the Kuala Kubu Bharu DUN by-election last month," he said.

Mazlan said PH's victory in the Kuala Kubu Bharu by-election indicated a shift in voter sentiment, beginning to feel the changes made by the Madani Government over the past two years.

However, Mazlan does not rule out the possibility that the sentiment of change brought by PH might be slightly hindered by voter anger over the Unity Government's recent move to target diesel subsidies.

"PN may also face internal sabotage issues as I understand that the original plan was for Pas to nominate Penang Pas Secretary, Iszuree Ibrahim as the candidate, but it was changed at the last minute.

"The current PN candidate is also embroiled in controversy regarding his educational background, which is neither from the ranks of the ulama nor professionals," he said.

Universiti Malaya lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Public Administration, and Development Studies Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub praised PH's decision to nominate Joohari, who has a high educational and religious background, as a candidate, thereby providing a strong challenge to PN.

He stressed that Joohari's candidacy also opens wider opportunities for the PH-BN coalition to reclaim the Sungai Bakap DUN seat, which was once a PKR stronghold for three terms.

"However, PH-BN or PN's victory depends on campaign strategies, voter turnout, and local and national issues that will be used by the contesting parties during the by-election campaign," he added.

BIOGRAPHY

• Name: Dr Joohari Ariffin
• Age: 60 years
• Origin: Permatang Pasir, Seberang Perai, Penang
• Previous Occupation: Teacher and former Director of the Northern Branch of the Aminuddin Baki Institute
• Education:
• Bachelor’s Degree from the University of Malaya in 1987
• Doctorate (PhD) from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)
• Experience: Active in community and charity work
• Party Position: None

PN Candidate

• Name: Abidin Ismail
• Age: 56 years
• Origin: Sungai Bakap
• Party Position:
• Vice President of Pas Nibong Tebal
• Assistant to the former Sungai Bakap State Assemblyman, the late Nor Zamri Latiff
• Previous Occupation: Logistics Executive