Potential power shifts in Iran as rumours swirl around Raisi's helicopter crash

SHAH ALAM - Uncertainty looms over Iran as conflicting reports emerge about President Ebrahim Raisi's fate following a helicopter crash, with his confirmed death potentially triggering significant political changes within the country.

Iran is in a state of suspense as conflicting reports circulate about the fate of President Ebrahim Raisi after his helicopter crashed in the mountainous East Azerbaijan province.

Official sources have yet to confirm whether Raisi survived the incident, which occurred in dense fog and challenging weather conditions.

As rescue teams scour the crash site, speculation mounts about the potential political ramifications of his death.

The 63-year-old ultraconservative leader, known for his black turban and religious attire, has been at the helm of Iran during a period marked by internal unrest and external confrontations.

Raisi's presidency, which began in 2021 after a contentious election, has been plagued by economic difficulties and widespread protests, notably the significant demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 after her arrest for allegedly violating Iran's strict Islamic dress code for women.

According to Arash Azizi, writing for The Atlantic, he said that the state media had been inconsistent in their reporting, contributing to the confusion and concern among the Iranian populace.

“Some outlets broadcast footage of people praying for Raisi's safety in his hometown, while others have yet to confirm his condition.

“An anonymous source in Tehran told me that Raisi might have been confirmed dead, with officials deliberating on how to announce the news without causing widespread panic,” Azizi said.

The uncertainty surrounding Raisi's fate has inevitably led to questions about who stands to benefit politically from his potential death; and Azizi suggested that Raisi's death could trigger a significant power shift within Iran's political elite.

He noted that Raisi, perceived as a regime loyalist with little independent political clout, was seen as a safe choice by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

His death could pave the way for new contenders to emerge in the political arena.

“If Raisi's death is confirmed, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would temporarily assume the presidency.

“According to Iran's constitution, a council comprising Mokhber, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i would have to organise a new election within 50 days,” he added.

Qalibaf, a seasoned politician with strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is seen as a key contender for the presidency.

“The potential power vacuum also brings into focus Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is considered a possible successor to his father as Supreme Leader.

“However, the implications of Raisi's potential death extend beyond the political elite. Many Iranians, weary of economic hardships and political repression, might view this moment as an opportunity to reignite protests and demand substantial changes.

“The street celebrations in Tehran at the rumour of Raisi's demise indicate a deep-seated discontent with the current regime, suggesting that any transition of power will be closely watched and contested by the populace,” he added.

As Iran navigates this period of uncertainty, the world watches closely to see how the political dynamics within the Islamic Republic will unfold.

The potential for a significant power struggle looms large, with various factions poised to assert their influence in the wake of Raisi's possible death.