What we know of the coming monsoonal Kemaman polls so far

SHAH ALAM - As Malaysia enters its annual monsoonal season, the country is also gearing up for another round of possibly rainy electoral bout in the east coast parliamentary constituency of Kemaman that is due in just 19 more days.

In case you’re scratching your heads, wondering why on earth will there be another election in Terengganu given the conclusion of the Aug 12 state polls, the coming by-election is that of the federal and not the state seats.

Similar to the Kuala Terengganu by-election -- which was the first parliamentary election in Terengganu since the 15th General Election (GE15)-- the upcoming bid to capture Kemaman followed the nullification of incumbent Pas MP Che Alias Hamid's GE15 victory due to bribery.

Statistically, Pas has an overwhelming political advantage in Terengganu, evident in its clean sweep victories at all eight parliamentary seats in GE15 and also at all 32 state seats in the Aug 12 state polls.

While the Islamist party currently has no immediate concerns, the same cannot be said for its rival, Umno, who has been eagerly eyeing the Kemaman seat with the confidence of an underdog anticipating a miraculous electoral victory.

"We believe that Kemaman is not a Pas stronghold; Kemaman is a stronghold of Umno,” boasted Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid yesterday, after unveiling the candidate for the Kemaman seat.

Historically, there was some truth in Zahid’s remark, as Umno has -- under the banner of Barisan Nasional (BN) -- been fending off Pas’ advances and retaining stewardship of Kemaman from GE11 to GE13.

But then again, that was when both Umno and BN were strong.

In BN’s candidacy announcement yesterday, the coalition has opted for a different strategy this time around; announcing a non-Umno figure as a candidate which has been described as a direct member of BN.

The candidate, is former Chief of the Malaysian Armed Forces, General (R) Tan Sri Raja Mohamed Affandi Raja Mohamed Noor.

"After consulting with friends in the component party, we believe that the chosen candidate can bring about change in Kemaman. Inshallah, we will continue to meet the needs of the people there,” said Zahid who is also BN chairman.

Expectedly confident of his electoral odds, Raja Mohamed Affandi described the responsibility that he was given as a “call of duty to the country.”

"I have served [the country] for 43 years. My age has reached a sweet 66.

“When given this offer, I think it is time for me to give back what I have [been given] for the past 40 years to this country, especially to the Kemaman constituency,” said Raja Mohamed Affandi at his candidacy announcement at the Umno HQ yesterday.

Interestingly, this was not the first time BN deployed such tactics.

In the 2019 Cameron Highlands by-election, the coalition fielded a BN direct member, Datuk Ramli Mohd Nor as candidate. Similar to Raja Mohamed Affandi, Ramli was also a man in uniform, serving as senior police officer prior to his political stint.

Like most Malay heartland constituencies, Kemaman is overwhelmingly Malay; with 94 per cent of its 139,423 voters are of the said ethnic group.

In GE15, Pas’ Che Alias won with a majority of 27,179 votes, securing 65,714 votes in a four-cornered fight with his fiercest contender being Umno giant and former menteri besar, Datuk Seri Ahmad Said, who only garnered 38,535 votes.

“Due to the issue of slander and the spread of hatred towards Umno and BN; and the extraordinary use of financial resources at that time, we lost votes in Kemaman," claimed Zahid.

However, the Deputy Prime Minister, believed that Raja Mohamed Affandi -- equipped with his military experiences -- will be capable in garnering the much needed public support needed to reclaim the seat from Pas.

"He has a very strong background in a military career, and he has gone through this professional career with great dedication," said Zahid.

If you're wondering who Pas has chosen to face the general that BN selected as its candidate for the upcoming electoral contest in Kemaman, you may need to keep guessing.

As of today, the Islamist party has not yet made a decision.

“We have not made any decisions yet. Wait for a day of two. Be patient,” remarked Pas vice-president Datuk Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar.