By-election: Non-Malay votes lead to BN’s victory - Analysts

SHAH ALAM - While Perikatan Nasional (PN) through Pas candidate Kasim Samat was expected to land a surprise in Pelangai by-election last Saturday, Barisan Nasional (BN) instead rose to defend the party's stronghold.

BN candidate Datuk Amizar Abu Adam showcased his potential, which dismissed the wild comments of a few political observers in regard to the poll.

Most of them had expected Amizar to have a hard time winning due to the significant shift in support of Malay voters towards PN since the 15th General Election (GE15).

Apart from that, the BN-Pakatan Harapan (PH) campaign was also affected by a number of national issues that had laid a great deal of pressure on the people's well-being such as the crisis of rising commodity prices, insufficient basic food supply as well as ringgit collapse.

Earlier, several political analysts predicted that if Amizar had lost to Kasim or the independent candidate Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli, the results would be a catalyst for Umno's split in the future.

However, with the strong support of PH machinery including DAP who had worked hard relentlessly, Amizar managed to retain the seat with a better result, thereby putting a stop to the green wave created by PN and Pas since GE15 and the state elections from growing further.

More interestingly, Amizar's victory was also accompanied by some positive events that might not have happened in the series of previous elections such as the success of the Bentong Umno information chief who gained the support of the majority of Chinese votes which made up around 12 per cent of the total number of voters in Pelangai.

In the central voting districts of Manchis, Sungai Gapoi, Telemong and Sungai Perdak where the majority were made up of non-Malay voters, it turned out that the group had managed to record an extremely high vote transfer to Amizar.

At the same time, Amizar had also successfully generated an increase in votes across several Malay majority voting centres such as Kampung Jawi-Jawi, Simpang Pelangai, Manchis, Sungai Gapoi, Telemong and Sungai Perdak.

However, PN also displayed an amazing performance as it scored two out of three polling district centres where the majority of voters hailed from Felda settlers.

For example, in Felda Kemasul, PN obtained 57 per cent of the votes which was an increase from 38.4 per cent of the votes in GE15.

In Felda Kemahal, PN managed to capture 50 per cent compared to 35.6 per cent in last year's general election.

The Election Commission (EC) officially announced that Amizar and BN had retained the constituency with 62 per cent of the votes or 7,324 votes over Kasim (4,375 votes) and Haslihelmy (43 votes).

For the record, the former incumbent who was also a Pahang Exco, the late Datuk Seri Johari Harun won it in GE15 with 57.7 per cent of the votes.

Commenting on BN's success, political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Mujibu Abd Muis concluded that Amizar's glory was possible thanks to the success of BN-PH machinery in stopping the massive shift of votes from Umno supporters to PN as what had happened in GE15 and the state polls.

At the same time, BN's success in seizing four voting district centres where the majority of registered voters were made up of non-Malay groups was also an important indicator that non-Malay segments such as the Chinese and Orang Asli were Amizar's saviours.

"With the transition of PH or DAP voters to BN candidates in Pelangai by-election, this proved that the BN-PH grassroots had begun to believe in accepting the political cooperation of the two parties through the unity government to face the upcoming political challenges.

"Another important factor helping the BN candidate's victory was the return of former Pahang Menteri Besar Tan Sri Adnan Yaakob to facilitate the BN candidate's campaign during the by-election campaign although he was initially said to be in favour of PN.

"Adnan, who has served in the Pelangai state assembly for over 36 years, certainly has a unique influence in influencing the voters there to continue to support BN," he told Sinar Premium on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu deputy vice-chancellor (Student and Alumni Affairs) Associate Professor Dr Mohd Izani Mohd Zain implied that the victory had been expected as the party which was assisted by PH machinery had a great advantage as the incumbent.

At the same time, he also pointed out that PN had failed to play any big issue that could manipulate the voters.

"This victory was also contributed by the support of BN and PH votes. This time, PH was campaigning to help an Umno candidate. DAP notably said that DAP campaign was carried out as if it was a DAP candidate who was contesting.

"Certainly, PH and DAP machinery's efforts this time were to return BN's favour in Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections in Johor previously," Izani said.

He said that the recent victory had also revealed the strength of the unity government in Pahang in terms of political stability that could be defended in the state and would guarantee the continuity of developments as mentioned in the party's manifesto before.

"The support of Chinese voters for BN candidate this time proved that they can accept candidates who are together with the Unity Government.

"Another important aspect is that any expectation of a domino theory phenomenon in Pahang as happened to two other East Coast states such as Kelantan and Terengganu in the six state elections last July was also a mistake.

"In conclusion, Malay voters in Pahang still have faith in BN-PH to continue to lead and this success will definitely give a moral boost to Umno and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to resume the administration of the existing government," he noted.