Who's making waves in the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections?
SHAH ALAM - Following the state election on Aug 12, Johor has now emerged as the "second test" ground for Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) to assess their compatibility within the unity government framework.
Perikatan Nasional (PN), on the other hand, is determined to maintain its momentum after experiencing a shift in support during the last state election.
The so-called 'green wave' of political change seeks to extend its influence to the southern region of the country.
However, PH and BN are gearing up to counter its advance with a formidable strategy.
The initial phase of campaigning has concluded, and political observers believe that both parties have now shifted into high gear as the polling day on Sept 9 approaches.
Who is ahead?
The Pulai Parliamentary seat and the Simpang Jeram State Assembly seat are witnessing three-cornered competitions, making the battle more intriguing.
In Pulai, PH has fielded Suhaizan Kayat, a candidate who is seen as confident and capable of defending the seat previously held by the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub.
Suhaizan faces competition from PN candidate Zulkifli Jaafar and Independent candidate Samsudin Mohd Fauzi.
Meanwhile, in the Simpang Jeram seat, PH has put forward Nazri Abdul Rahman, the deputy head of the Bakri Area Trust.
He is up against PN candidate Dr Mohd Mazri Yahya, a vascular consultant and endovascular surgeon, as well as Independent candidate S. Jeganathan.
Political analyst Associate Prof Mohd Azhar Abd Hamid believes that Suhaizan Kayat is the standout candidate in the Pulai Parliament seat.
Suhaizan's experience and familiarity with the political landscape make him a prominent contender.
Additionally, Suhaizan benefits from the lingering influence of his late predecessor, Salahuddin, who had a strong presence in the Pulai area.
"Allahyarham Salahuddin was a very strong name in Pulai and when Suhaizan competes in this area indirectly, we cannot deny that Salahuddin's influence is still strong and I think Suhaizan gets a boost from the strength of that influence," he told Awani today.
Suhaizan's position is further strengthened by the support of BN voters, and political experts predict that he has a good chance of maintaining the status quo in the Pulai Parliament.
Simpang Jeram state seat: PN gains momentum
Conversely, the Simpang Jeram state seat appears to be leaning toward PN.
While the PH-BN coalition is crucial in this seat, PN is seen as having the potential to secure victory.
Mohd Azhar points out that despite Salahuddin's previous win in the seat, the strength, work ethic, and machinery of PN in Simpang Jeram should not be underestimated.
"Even though the seat was previously won by the late Salahuddin, we cannot underestimate the strength, work ethic, and machinery (PN) in Simpang Jeram.
"However, the sentiments of the 3Rs (religion, race and royalty) and various others can influence to some extent the sentiments of Malay voters in Simpang Jeram," he said.
A PN victory in Simpang Jeram could send a significant signal to PH-BN, especially considering that Johor is considered the "birthplace" of Umno.
If PN succeeds in capturing the seat previously held by Salahuddin, it could impact the image of Umno and the strength of the recently forged cooperation within the Unity Government.
"Umno in particular we know here (Johor) Umno started in 1946 and its strength is here.
"If he fails this time to defend the seat he previously won, that will be a bigger signal for PH-BN, whether in terms of the image of Umno, or the strength of the cooperation that has just been built through the Unity Government," said Mohd Azhar.
In the Johor state election last year, BN secured a comfortable victory, winning 40 out of 56 state assembly seats and achieving a two-thirds majority.
PH won 11 state assembly seats, PN secured three, while PKR and Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) each won one seat.
Johor's unique political landscape
The Sultan of Johor, Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar has stressed the importance of unity and harmony among the people of Johor, rejecting any form of extremism that could disrupt racial and religious harmony. This royal directive has played a crucial role in maintaining political stability in the state.
"If we look at the nature of Johor, it is very different. In terms of psychographics, it is very different from what is on the East Coast, the North, or the West Coast.
"This is because in Johor, in terms of psychographics, there is more emphasis on advanced, modern, and advanced.
"The order of the Sultan of Johor, (his majesty) wants to conduct politics in a civilised manner and not to use extreme sentiments so that Johor can remain as a state that can maintain the harmony and well-being of its people.
"But if we look at other places, for example in Kelantan, Terengganu, or Kedah, we see that the 'game' and the platform are slightly different.
"This is because they want to dominate and (hope) no single party can claim that they are the most powerful there compared to Johor," he added.
Umno-DAP compatibility and voter education
According to Mohd Azhar, the process of building unity, including between Umno and DAP, is ongoing to ensure grassroots acceptance of cooperation.
He said Umno's challenge is to educate voters about DAP's character and image accurately.
"By providing accurate information, Umno aims to garner support from its supporters for PH candidates, even in the Pulai Parliamentary by-election and the Simpang Jeram State Assembly," he said.
Turnout will be decisive
The expected turnout of 70 per cent is considered a safe zone for PH to maintain its victory in the Pulai Parliament seat.
A very low turnout could lead to unexpected outcomes, with potential shifts in support.
"There is a possibility that if there are many absentees, for example, in the Pulai Parliament, Chinese voters in Perling, for example, and the possibility of vote shifting is very large, then the result may be in favour of the PN," he said.
The Pulai Parliament has a total of 166,653 voters, with the highest number in the 21 to 29 age group.
Simpang Jeram State Assembly has 40,379 voters, with the highest number in the 30 to 39 age group. - AWANI
