PH-BN can win comfortably in Pulai, Simpang Jeram by-elections

SHAH ALAM - Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) are likely to win comfortably in by-elections in Pulai Parliament and Simpang Jeram State Assembly.

This is due to Johor being Umno's stronghold as well as the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub's good political diplomacy.

Political analyst Dr Noor Nirwandy Mat Noordin said Perikatan Nasional (PN) will find it difficult to penetrate the area since the unity of the Umno grassroots in Johor is as strong as it was in the state elections in Kelantan and Terengganu, which were dominated by Pas.

He stated that with such unity, the Umno grassroots are expected to vote for the PH candidate.

"In the by-elections in Johor this time, despite a few grassroots who may turn, I expect that will not happen because Umno sentiments in Johor are so strong and thick.

"So, I don't think it will be difficult for the two coalitions to maintain their victory." "More than 80 per cent of PH-BNs will win easily," he told Sinar on Sunday.

The by-elections in Pulai and Simpang Jerang are being held following the death of their incumbent, Salahuddin, on July 23.

Noor Nirwandy also noted that Salahuddin's substantial majority in the 15th General Election (GE15) and the BN vote enhanced PH-BN's stronghold in the area.

Another political analyst, Mujibu Abd Muis, believes that Umno could be rejected at the grassroots level because the Malay party's sentiment is aligned with DAP, as it was in the previous state election.

He stated that some Umno supporters may be protesting by voting for PN candidates or not voting at all.

"In the recent state election trend, 30 to 40 per cent of Umno supporters have fled, primarily in areas where Umno did not compete. However, in Pulai Parliament, I am hesitant to speak up because there is no data," he added.

When asked whether the PN could take over the Pulai Parliament, he answered that it was unlikely given the demographic element that the number of non-Malay voters outnumbers Malay voters.

"So, on paper, PH-BN can retain those areas; however, PN may have a chance if Umno members turnout is low and their votes are split, particularly in Simpang Jeram," he said.