State polls: If it’s just a two-cornered fight

Focus

By MOHD FAIZUL HAIKA MAT KHAZI

19 Aug 2023 10:20am

Photo for illustrative purposes only. Bernama FILE PIX

SHAH ALAM - The outcome of the state elections on Aug 12 revealed that the absence of third or fourth candidates in seven State Legislative Assembly seats could lead to varying results.

This phenomenon arises due to the three or four-cornered contests involving candidates from parties such as the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM), Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM), Parti Utama Rakyat (PUR), or independent candidates.

These contests have resulted in candidates from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) - Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and Perikatan Nasional (PN) either winning or losing by narrow margins, with differences of less than 500 votes in the respective state assembly areas.

The seven seats in question were Taman Templer, Gombak Setia, Dusun Tua, Sungai Kandis, and Dengkil in Selangor; Ampangan in Negeri Sembilan; and Kota Lama in Kelantan.

For instance, in the case of PH-BN candidate Anfaal Saari, he could have secured a larger majority than the 467-vote difference, or the total of 22,247 votes in the Taman Templer constituency, if Muda candidate Aida Rahman did not contest so her 765 votes were instead directed toward the representative of Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah).

Conversely, a different outcome might unfold if Aida’s votes favour Anfaal’s opponent Zaidy Abdul Talib.

In such a scenario, the PN candidate could potentially recapture the Taman Templer seat, which they previously won in the 13th General Election (GE13). Zaidy could secure victory with 22,545 votes, outstripping Anfaal’s 22,247 votes.

The fate of BN Selangor Chairman Datuk Megat Zulkarnain Omardin could also be varied in the Gombak Setia constituency if the 1,076 votes obtained by independent candidate Mohamed Salim Mohamed Ali supported him.

Megat Zulkarnain could win with 31,317 votes, a majority of 1,018 votes over PN candidate Muhammad Hilman Idham, who secured 31,375 votes.

In the case of Megat Zulkarnain’s deputy, Datuk Johan Abd Aziz, there was a possibility of losing the Dusun Tua seat if the 3,110 votes secured by Muda candidate Al Hafiz Ikhwan Mohamad Asaad favoured PN candidate Azhar Hambali from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu).

Azhar could potentially win with 26,851 votes if all of Muda’s votes go in his favour, resulting in a slim majority victory of 96 votes over the Umno Semenyih chairman.

In Negeri Sembilan, Muhammad Ghazali Zainal Abidin might secure victory in the Ampangan constituency if the 3,079 votes obtained by independent candidate Mohamad Rafie Ab Malek favour the PN candidate.

Ghazali, who previously gathered 5,725 votes, could win with 8,804 votes, thereby defeating PH’s Tengku Zamrah Tengku Sulaiman, who secured 6,054 votes.

A similar situation could unfold in Kelantan, involving the Kota Lama state seat previously held by PH-Amanah in the recent state election.

Dr. Hafidzah Mustakim secured victory with 9,691 votes, surpassing PN’s Datuk Zamri Ismail, who obtained 9,489 votes. PRM candidate Tan Boon Kian (126) and independent candidate Izat Bukhary Ismail Bukhary (85) were also in the race.

If the 211 votes secured by Boon Kian and Izat Bukhary lean towards Zamri, Pas could maintain control of the Kota Lama seat, thus denying Amanah’s first victory in Kelantan.

No Guarantees

Considering the potential for vote shifts, Ilham Centre Executive Director Hisommudin Bakar expressed scepticism that the results of the seven concerned state assembly seats would change, even in a two-cornered contest between PH-BN and PN in these low-margin seats.

He stated that nobody could guarantee that voters supporting independent candidates, Muda, PSM, and PRM candidates would necessarily favour BN-PH or PN candidates.

“We cannot make assumptions because it is not certain that third or fourth-candidate voters will participate in the voting process if there is a two-cornered contest in the area. We also cannot assume they will vote for BN-PH or PN even if they participate in voting,” he said.

However, Hisommudin acknowledged that the presence of third or fourth candidates has led to a division of votes, causing BN-PH and PN representatives to win or lose by slim majorities in the seats contested during the six-state polls on Aug 12.