State polls: Three factors for low voter turnout- Ilham Centre

SHAH ALAM - Ilham Centre has identified three main factors contributing to the low voter turnout as of 2pm in Saturday's polls in six states.

Its executive director, Hisommudin Bakar, said the three factors are the youth voter segment, especially Undi18 (voters under 18), non-Malay voters, and supporters of the Barisan Nasional (BN) who are less enthusiastic about voting compared to the 15th General Election (GE15).

He said the low voter turnout percentage, ranging from 49 to 56 per cent across all six states, may not necessarily favour any specific coalition or party.

"Instead, both major coalitions, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), as well as Barisan Nasional (BN), will be significantly affected if the voter turnout percentage does not exceed 60 per cent by the end of the state elections voting period.

"This is because PN's main success in GE15 came from them garnering over 80 per cent support from young voters, while PH's success in winning 82 parliamentary seats was due to the commitment of non-Malay voters who turned out to vote at over 95 per cent.

"The same applies to BN, which managed to retain 30 parliamentary seats in GE15 due to the unwavering support of their loyal voters," he said to Sinar Premium on Saturday.

Following this, Hisommudin predicted that the competition in the six state polls is still fierce and evenly matched.

He explained that the reduced enthusiasm among young voters to vote in the state elections might be attributed to a more balanced social media campaign competition among all competing parties compared to GE15.

"As for the lack of interest among non-Malay voters to turn out and vote, a significant portion of them are boycotting due to their disagreement with PH cooperating with BN, especially Umno.

"For staunch BN supporters who didn't vote, the cause might be that they still cannot accept DAP as one of the political partners.

"Additionally, they are believed to reject the leadership of Umno President Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi due to corruption issues and party leadership problems," he added.

If the voter turnout percentage reaches 60 per cent by 5pm, Hisommudin believes that the results of the state elections will maintain a status quo of 3-3.

However, some surprising outcomes are expected, especially in mixed state assembly constituencies and among the Malay voter majority, if the turnout percentage remains around 55 per cent.

"For instance, some marginal seats in Terengganu like Kijal, Permaisuri, Seberang Takir, and Telemung might be won by the BN-PH coalition as PN is no longer receiving substantial youth voter support there.

"In Selangor as well, the northern state seats that PN previously held at the Parliamentary level in GE15 might be taken over by PH-BN candidates.

"Ironically, in Selangor, mixed state seats like Hulu Kelang, Sementa, and Gombak Setia might also switch to PN as the foundational votes of PH and BN in those areas are expected to decline," he stated.