Experts say PN's 20-seat target ambitious
SHAH ALAM - Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yasin's predictions that the coalition is likely to win 20 seats in Penang are ambitious, as the coalition has only a slim chance of winning, experts weigh in.
Political analyst Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) Associate Prof Dr Ummu Atiyah Ahmad Zakuan claimed that it is premature to predict PN’s victory to the extent that the number of seats is ambitious, considering the numbers in the previous election.
"This observation is based on numbers obtained in the 14th general election (GE14). Even when we consider the performance in the 15th general election (GE15) for parliamentary seats, Pakatan Harapan still dominates, winning ten out of 13 seats.
"I believe the upcoming state election in Penang will pose a challenge for PN. When we consider the outcome of the previous GE14 and take into account the present coalition in the Unity government, it actually gives an advantage to the Unity government.
"This is because voters from both Umno and PH are likely to support this coalition, which, if combined, will enable their candidates to win," Ummu told Sinar Daily.
She further added that if Penangites still remain loyal to Barisan Nasional (BN) and vote for the coalition, and the same goes for PH voters towards BN’s candidates, then PN will face difficulties and might have a smaller number of seats to win.
However, Ummu foresees that PN has a chance to win state assembly legislative seats in Penaga (N1) and Bertam (N2) because these are Malay majority constituencies and PN is now the incumbent.
"If the formula of the Unity government works and is accepted by its party members without any sabotage, and the idea is accepted by the voters, then they have a chance to comfortably win seats and maintain their dominance in the state assembly.
"But if otherwise, then it will be a challenge to the Unity coalition. In addition, it is believed that many PH voters are fence-sitters, unlike Umno and Pas voters, who have strong base party loyalists.
"Thus, the voting behaviour of fence-sitter voters is highly unpredictable, and the Unity coalition should not be too complacent as these voters can sway their votes towards other parties or coalitions," she explained.
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)’s political science professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid also agreed with Ummu, claiming that the prediction by Muhyddin was just a big hope rather than reality.
Fauzi said that PN could still win if Malay voters' dissatisfaction with Umno resulted in protest votes for their opponent or in boycotting the elections. PN may still win those seats.
"But apart from the Malay-majority seats, chances are slim that PN can win any other constituencies with Gerakan being fielded against DAP and PKR incumbents.
"More likely, it's a pipe dream. Malay sentiments on the ground are very disillusioned with Umno, which PN can capitalise on, but at most they'll be able to capture 12–13 seats, and this if we include seats on the island that have strong Umno links, such as in Pulau Betong, Telok Bahang, and Bayan Lepas.
"PN will be banking on Gerakan's record as the party that industrialised Penang; however, I can see that PH-BN can counter such an argument by saying that all of Gerakan's achievements were accomplished as part of the BN coalition," he added.
However, political analyst Dr Abdul Aziz Azizam of Universti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) expressed a different opinion, claiming that Muhyiddin's prediction was part of the internal strategy of the opposition coalition party.
"The upcoming state elections, particularly in Penang, will serve as a platform to assess the overall capability of the PN components to work together in securing victory for the PN.
"I believe that if the formulation of cooperative strategies among the PN components leads to success, it will send a signal to the public that ethnic segmentation is harmonious within PN and that PN is a better alternative for those who oppose DAP, particularly among the Malay community," Aziz said.
He further elaborated that the dynamics of the public narrative in Penang are unique.
"However, the indications from the incumbent officials are very clear, especially with the recent issue when DAP chairman Lim Guan Eng issued a warning statement to the voters of Penang to prevent the 'green wave—a reference to PN’s election appeals to voters—from taking over in the state, claiming that it would lead to the destruction of Buddhist temples and non-Muslims facing various restrictions.
He was commenting on Lim's allegation that 'the green wave', would destroy temples and deny religious rights in Penang.
However, Aziz said that after some time, Lim denied saying these kinds of things, saying that he had just used the example of a temple being destroyed in Kedah to illustrate his point that these signs offer a number of distinct indications.
"Firstly, Lim Guan Eng indirectly acknowledges the influence of the PN wave in Penang, which is seen as putting pressure on them now.
"Secondly, Lim's denial, claiming that he did not mention temples but provided an example of a Hindu temple in Kedah, reflects that he himself intends to play on the issue of racial or religious tension in his campaign," he explained.
As both references to racial or religious conflicts mention temples, Aziz elaborated that some people may ask what the difference between the two is.
Muhyiddin was previously reported as saying that he is confident that a near-majority win in Penang is within reach despite anticipating an uphill battle for the coalition in the upcoming state elections.
He also said PN could win "nearly 20" state seats. The Bersatu president urged coalition members to work extra hard to win one more seat for a simple majority in the 40-seat legislature.
