Selangor state elections to determine Anwar, Azmin and Umno's fate
Azmin's influence is seen as not a strong enough factor for PN to win over Selangor - FILE PIC
Some are of the opinion that the unity government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has not really demonstrated any real reforms which he has been promoting all this time.
Political observers have agreed that Pakatan Harapan ( PH) and Barisan Nasional ( BN) will be faced with a huge challenge in the state elections for these six states, with most of their muscle going into defending their reign in Selangor.
This is not to say that the elections in the five other states are not important, however Selangor is often considered the sociopolitical and economic heart of the nation with more than 7 million people concentrated in the state and because of its promiximity with Kuala Lumpur.
Selangor is also seen as the cornerstone of success in which PH had managed to seize Putrajaya in the 14th General Elections - this was a direct result of Pakatan Rakyat ( what PH was known as at the time) , successfully taking control of the state in 2008.
Since then Selangor has been known as PH's stronghold, a title similarly given to Pulau Pinang.
From 56 state seats, PH which was lead by Pati Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), Parti Amanah Negara ( Amanah) and DAP managed to secure 44 seats in the 14th general election.
With the Selangor state assembly administration scheduled to end on the 26th of June this year, the state elections need to happen before the 25th of August. Many have predicted that it will most likely happen in May this year.
There are concerns if the marriage of convenience between PH and BN will be able maintain its control over Selangor, as Perikatan Nasional (PN) had managed to win six parliamentary seats out of 22 in the state.
PN's success is seen as encouraging, as the Umno - BN coalition had not been able to defend any seats.
PN had also managed to wrest two of PKR stronghold seats, namely in Kuala Langat and Kapar.
Political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said PN's confidence in saying that they will be able to capture Selangor in the upcoming state elections is not misplaced as the impact of the 'green wave' is still being felt long after the 15the general elections
PN will be able to win 10 - 15 seats
Dr Mazlan said based on his research he did not discount the fact that PN might win seats in Malay majority areas such as Sabak Bernam, Kuala Selangor, Kuala Langat, Sepang and Kampar.
" From the 56 seats, we are predicting that PN will probably win 10 to 15 seats
" But for PN to create history in taking over Selangor from PH-BN that might be difficult as the composition of races in other areas are almost equal," Mazlan elaborated
Mazlan said another factor that needs to be taken into consideration on PN's chances is whether the coalition will be able to capture the non malay votes.
"Even if former Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali was used as PN's 'poster boy' to ensure that PN secured those votes its still not enough of a wow factor to recapture Selangor from PH and BN's grasps," he said
However Shah Alam Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) Division deputy chief Dr Afif Bahardin was of the opinion that the 15th general elections results could not be translated to determine what will happen in the state elections.
Dr Afif said he was confident that the Azmin'z influence coupled with the support from notable leaders such as Tan Sri Noh Omar, Khairy Jamaluddin and Hamdan will advance PN's chances
"The issue of Azmin being disliked does not arise as he holds an excellent record as the previous MB and the economics minister this only proves that PN has the leadership lineup that will be able to steer this state forward.
"If the people do not give PN this mandate, I fear that PH and BN will continue the attitude of the previous government that did not have integrity," Afif stressed.
Meanwhile former Selangor Menteri Besar Dr Mohamed Khir Toyo is of the opinion that the Selangor state elections will be important in determining Umno's life expectancy in the nation's political landscape.
With support from Malay voters for the party remaining at 30 percent, he fears that Umno will lose an additional 10 percent of veteran voter support following the party's failure to neutralize the stigma of collaborating with PH and DAP for this state elections.
"The current situation is of course something PN can gain from, that is why Umno's top leadership needs to play its role in bringing harmony between party members in the six states that will be facing the elections.
"Selangor Umno should also ensure that they are able to contest at least 15 seats, Anwar and PH need to give way, as Umno willingness to work with DAP in the new unity government is the biggest sacrifice the party has made for the unity government," Khir stressed,
