GE15: Gain or loss for Penang by not dissolving state assembly?

The 15th General Election will proceed as it should, says Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

This is despite six states have decided not to follow suit to dissolve their respective state assemblies.

Pas-held states, under the Perikatan Nasional pact, had announced that it would not seek the dissolution of its state assemblies under its rule - Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

Similarly, under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, three other states decided not to dissolve their respective state assemblies namely Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow announced that the state would not dissolve its assembly and may have impact on the state politically, economically as well as financially.

If separate situations of the general election and state elections are conducted, we might witness elections on yearly basis and these changes could be both gains and losses to the states.

Penang’s decision not to dissolve its state assembly will see the below impacts politically, both positive and negative.

(a) New Leadership/Representatives

A fresh opportunity for Penangites to re-elect their representatives for a changed leadership if they aren’t satisfied with the incumbent.

This may also indirectly encourage their assemblymen to work harder to garner support from their voters from time to time by bettering themselves in serving the rakyat.

(b) Improvised flood mitigation plan post-monsoon

PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the state elections are postponed due to concerns about floods during the monsoon season.

Penang island often experiences flash floods whenever there is a downpour. This is very frequent that the state government had announced RM10 million for flood mitigation plans in 2016.

Post-monsoon state elections will allow more time for state assemblymen to improvise the state’s flood mitigation plan, especially in flood-prone areas such as Teluk Kumbar, Bayan Lepas, Relau, and Bayan Baru.

(c) Political Mileage for Muda

Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman has already declared the party’s intention to join PH last month and its official application was made on Sept 9.

Anwar said negotiations are still ongoing and progress had been made for MUDA to join PH but at this point in time, it may not be possible due to Registrar of Societies’ approval.

Muda may give a positive image among the young Penang voters’ especially if they head to the grounds during the monsoon flood to help the victims. Of course, this would only work with various social media platforms to push their exposure.

Politically, this also gives opportunities for Muda to join hands with the veteran-party DAP to score political mileage in the future.

The future of Penang will see more young voters coming out of their nutshell to voice out their needs, and being on the same boat with DAP, Muda will see growth in its goal to attain more seats in the parliament and state.

(d) Stronger pact of Pakatan Harapan

Penang, joining hands with Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, in agreeing to their PH presidential council’s decision to hold a joint-state election also portrays a stable and strong pact in general.

Overall, this is not unusual, as many democratic countries also hold separate elections.

Chow said Penang would simultaneously hold its elections alongside Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, which is expected in March next year.

Financial Implications

On a general point of view, holding separate state and federal elections for Penang may see financial implications to the Electoral Commission (EC) of Malaysia.

Former visiting Associate Professor to University Malaya Dr Patrick Ziegenhain said all states should have the rights to hold elections when they like and not when the national government wants.

“Synchronised elections may reduce public expenditure but it will leave voters with a huge number of decisions to make since so many public offices have to be filled on one occasion.

“I believe that synchronisation is undemocratic because the focus on most voters will be more on a national basis and Penang state would not get the attention that it should.

“For example, when there is a presidential election in Indonesia, people talk about who is to become the president, but no one talks about who will elect for local mayor.

“There is a lack of accountability in these scenarios,” he said.

Ziegenhain is currently with President University, Indonesia.

When asked about the cost effects of dual elections for Penang state, he mentioned that for democracy, he said it is worth spending the money.

Meanwhile, Penang holding separate state elections will economically be affected too.

According to the Laws of Malaysia, Members of Parliament (Remuneration) Act 1980, a person who ceases to be a member, may be granted a pension if he has completed 36 months of recogniseable services.

There are 40 assemblymen representing the Penang state government now, out of which some incumbents have completed their term as assemblymen more than 36 months prior to the 2018 general election.

These representatives, although incumbent or not, are entitled to their respective benefits.

Department Head of Political Science, College of Economics, Sultan Qaboos University in Oman Associate Prof. Dr Noor Sulastry Yurni Ahmad gives a breakdown on how this about political and financial gains.

Putting aside the voter’s burden and the electoral cost for EC aside, she gives her take on what the politicians gain when the dissolution of state assembly is postponed.

“This is not the first time for voters to come out and vote twice. This scenario has happened before in Malaysia.

“Find the reason and the benefits of what the politicians may gain out of this behind the curtains.

“What is the agenda behind all this? What is the loss to an assemblyman when he does not complete his services term to the rakyat from the elected day?” she said.

Conclusively, Penang may have its implications politically, financially, economically in both good and bad ways, but it has more to gain by not dissolving its state assembly.

Although PH presidential council claims its decision was based on the monsoon season factor to postpone the dissolution, there are several political gains from this move too.

Penang will foresee both good and bad out of its decision not to dissolve the state assembly.