Hot seats are up for grabs - Need for an Umno-Pas-Bersatu team to deny PH of GE15 win?
SHAH ALAM - Political parties in the country are eyeing on 31 parliamentary seats ahead of the 15th General Election (GE15).
An analysis based on the GE14 vote data issued by the Election Commission (EC), a local political research centre O2 Research Malaysia has projected that at least 27 Parliamentary seats in the Opposition block has the potential to be won by Umno-Pas in GE15 if the Muafakat Nasional (MN) coalition was successful, regardless officially or not.
Sinar Premium also analysed the data and discovered that four Parliamentary seats that belongs to Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional (PN), namely Tambun, Sungai Besar, Titiwangsa and Indera Mahkota, which risks being stolen by Pakatan Harapan (PH) if there are no efforts achieved between MN or PN-BN.
O2 Senior Researcher Anis Anwar Suhaimi said these prediction was made based on the mixed vote method basis of Umno and Pas during GE14 where all 27 hot seats consist of marginal seats and majority Malay voters of over 51 to 65 per cent.
Among these seats are Jerlun, Kubang Pasu, Pokok Sena, Kuala Kedah, Merbok, Sungai Petani, Padang Serai and Kulim Bandar Baru, Alor Setar (Kedah); Parit Buntar, Lumut and Tanjung Malim (Perak); and Hulu Selangor, Kuala Selangor, Kapar and Kuala Langat (Selangor).
Besides that, seats with potential to be won by MN is Raub, Kuantan, Temerloh and Benton (Pahang); Sri Gading, Simpang Renggam (Johor); Wangsa Maju (Kuala Lumpur); Kangar (Perlis); Putatan (Sabah); Tangga Batu (Melaka) and Tampin (Negeri Sembilan).
“What’s more interesting is that the 27 seats also involves 11 Parliamentary seats from Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) aside from the three Malay-majority seats with more than 53 per cent that had been contested by non—Malay candidates from the BN coalition which are Alor Setar, Wangsa Maju and Simpang Renggam,” said Anis.
MN must be revitalised
After three years since the establishment of MN, Pas Central Working Committee Dr Mohd Zuhdi Marsuki had expressed belief that a combination of Pas and Umno was stilla trusted and powerful formula to deny PH the opportunity of winning GE15.
In a situation where Malay parties are divided into various groups - BN, PN, PH and Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), Mohd Zuhdi said the MN coalition - which he describes barely alive, must be revitalised and strengthen to avoid more than two cornered fights that would affect the Malay communities.
The Pas Research Centre Operations Director said there were 27 marginal Parliamentary seats that was extremely likely to be won by PH if the two main Malay party - Pas and Umno contest against one another.
Keeping mum on these 27 seats, it however comes as a shock since Pas has been seen comfortably cooperating in a coalition with Umno’s biggest enemy, Bersatu via PN.
Mohd Zuhdi’s views had also raised questions whether it represented Pas as a whole or just a personal opinion especially since many were aware that the religious party, which is also the second biggest Malay party after Umno, was experiencing a crisis among its pro-Umno and pro-PN (Bersatu) members.
He even suggested that all MN seats to be given to Pas and BN.
Implications from this “misunderstanding” also saw former Ulama Syura Council secretary-general Datuk Dr Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali being removed from his position which later led him to quitting Pas and became an independent Parliamentarian.
What’s ironic now is that Khairudin, who has long been an Umno man compared to a Pas-PN, stated that there were nearly 32 critical Parliamentary seats if BN and Pas were to face PH in more than a two-cornered fight in the upcoming election.
Bersatu bakal kehilangan Tambun
Tambun, the seat won by Bersatu’s deputy president Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu in GE14, has the potential to be stolen by a PH candidate in the next polls if a four-cornered fight takes place.
This is because the Youth and Sports Minister had received 38,661 votes whilst contesting with the PH coalition, leaving BN candidate Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah - former Finance Minister 1, far behind with 33,341 votes.
However, if Pas and Bersatu as well as BN unites to save the unofficial MN seat, they can garner at least 48,289 votes - much more greater that Ahmad Faizal’s 9,628 majority under PH’s banner.
Thus it makes perfect sense as to why PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is also eyeing the Tambun seat in GE15 as it is still seen as a major stronghold for the Opposition if the Malay votes are split.
Similar situations would be seen at Sungai Besar that is currently held by Deputy Education Minister 1 Datuk Muslimin Yahya, Women, Family and Community Development Minister Datuk Seri Rina Harun’s Titiwangsa and Foreign Minister Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah’s Indera Mahkota if MN-PN fails to be realised.
