SHAH ALAM - The Ayer Kuning by-election serves as the first real test of the unity government framework between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) at the state level as both coalitions collaborate to support BN candidate Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir amid an increasingly competitive political landscape.
Research firm O2 Research chief researcher Anis Anwar Suhaimi highlighted the significance of the by-election, noting that it was the first real indicator of how the unity government is functioning in Perak.
He said the collaboration was being presented as proof of the stability and cooperation promised by the federal government.
"Both coalitions are collaborating to support BN candidate Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir under the banner of the federal government’s stability and cooperation narrative.
"This alliance is crucial given the ethnic diversity of Ayer Kuning," he said when contacted.
The Ayer Kuning constituency’s diverse electorate—56 per cent Malay, 22 per cent Chinese, 14 per cent Indian, and eight per cent Orang Asli—required the BN-PH coalition to appeal across ethnic lines.
Anis said the alliance represented by Yusri was framed as a unifying force capable of addressing both local concerns and broader national interests.
However, he said Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate from Pas, Muhaimin Malek, has shown strength among conservative Malay-Muslim voters.
"PN's candidate remains formidable, especially in securing conservative Malay-Muslim votes.
"Pas' longstanding grassroots machinery and messaging through religious platforms give PN a consistent base among rural Malay voters," he said.
Also running as a candidate was lawyer and human rights advocate Bawani KS from Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM).
Although PSM has a smaller support base and was unlikely to win, Anis said its progressive stance could appeal to protest voters or those looking for an alternative to the main coalitions.
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Mara political analyst Dr Abdul Aziz Azizam pointed out the complex nature of the race.
He said Ayer Kuning has traditionally been a BN stronghold, but recent changes including the narrower margins in the 15th General Election showed that competition was growing.
"I believe there will be intense competition between the two main candidates from BN and PN.
"It is also worth noting that both candidates have religious education backgrounds, while the candidate from the PSM offers an alternative option from a different perspective," he said.
While all candidates brought unique strengths, Abdul Aziz said the BN-PH alliance faced the greatest pressure.
"The greatest pressure may fall on the BN candidate, as the governing coalition needed to prove that their collaboration is genuinely effective.
"This means they not only need to win but also demonstrate increased support compared to the last general election," he added.
In the 2022 general election, both BN and PH saw declines in support (-7.46 per cent for PH and -8.90 per cent for BN), while PN gained 13.43 per cent.
Abdul Aziz said such scenarios typically benefited the opposition, which tends to have a more committed and consistent voter base.
Ayer Kuning has 31,897 registered voters, including 31,315 ordinary voters and 582 police officers and their spouses.
The Election Commission has set April 26 as polling day, with early voting scheduled for April 22.