SHAH ALAM - This Saturday, there will be four contenders in the state legislative assembly by-election in Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB): Pakatan Harapan (PH), Perikatan Nasional (PN), Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM), and an independent candidate.
PH had chosen Pang Sock Tao, 31, who also serves as the Press Secretary to the Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming, to represent the unity government, while the Parti Pribumi Bersatu (Bersatu) Hulu Selangor division acting chief Khairul Azhari Saut, 54, is PN's main candidate.
The presence of the Independent candidate Nyau Ke Xie, also known as Eris, was expected and linked to the Gerakan Party's protest against the PN.
This is because Gerakan contested the state assembly seat in the Selangor state elections in August last year.
The presence of PRM candidate Hafizah Zainuddin was also seen as a protest against PH for not fielding a Malay candidate.
PRM was considered a friendly party to PH despite not supporting the unity government.
Behind the involvement of four candidates in this by-election, the real focus of the competition is believed to be between Pang and Khairul to win the hearts of the 40,226 voters in the KKB constituency.
Based on the records of the Election Commission (EC), there were 39,362 ordinary voters, while 625 voters were police and military personnel, and 238 voters were overseas voters.
Approximately 46 per cent of the voters were Malay, while around 30 per cent were Chinese. KKB had about 7,200 Indian voters, representing 18 per cent of the total voters.
Indigenous voters represent three per cent, while the rest belong to other ethnic groups.
Strengths of Party Candidates
Pang's Excellent Record
Despite being young and relatively inexperienced in politics, many political observers see Pang's candidature as highlighting the true 'DNA' of DAP and PH, which were not afraid to take risks at a young age and were highly educated and energetic leaders.
Such a strategy seems to have a significant positive impact on the sentiment of non-Malay voters who are looking for representatives who are not merely party warlords serving political party interests but rather a young force willing to work hard for them.
"It's undeniable that the non-Malay voters' reaction in this by-election is somewhat passive. Some think that this by-election is not significant; some are disappointed with the issue of KK Mart's sale of stockings bearing the word Allah, and some are affected by the issue of the pardon for former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
"Now, with the issue of racialism raised by PN, Pang has an advantage in regaining their support,” a Chinese voter, Sun Peng Hock, 75, who lives in Kampung Baru Air Panas, Kerling, told Sinar Premium.
Additionally, Pang might need to thank the late Lee Kee Hiong for providing an excellent service record during his three terms as the former state assembly representative for the people of KKB.
For a young person from Kampung Orang Asli Geraci Jaya, Zulkhairi Ramsit, 24, Lee was very committed to solving every issue faced by the Orang Asli community, which includes six villages in the KKB state assembly area.
"Although there are still some other important issues, like the request for the construction of tar roads to our durian orchard areas, that have not been implemented, the Orang Asli community hopes that the excellent service provided by the late representative can be continued by his successor," said Zulkhairi.
Potential First Malay Assemblyman since 1974?
The KKB state assembly seat has its history, as it has never been held by a Malay representative since its establishment in 1974, which was 50 years ago.
Dominated by MCA candidates from 1974 until 2008 (except for DAP's surprise victory temporarily holding the seat from 1978 to 1982), before being taken over by PH-DAP four terms ago, there is a bright potential for Khairul to break the racial barrier and create a surprise in this by-election.
More comfortable being the underdog, Khairul, with full support from the former Selangor Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who became the PN election director in the KKB by-election, is seen as aggressively winning the hearts of Malay voters.
With two more state assembly seats under the Hulu Selangor Parliament, namely Hulu Bernam and Batang Kali state assembly seats, falling into the hands of the PN, including the respective parliamentary seats in the Selangor state elections last year, many political observers expect the KKB state assembly seat to be ripe for the taking.
This is because the majority vote obtained by Lee in the 2023 state elections decreased by 3,015 votes compared to the majority vote in the 2018 general elections, which recorded 7,134 votes, following a green wave that occurred after GE15.
In addition to that, Khairul's advantage lies in being a local candidate from the Hulu Selangor Parliament and originating from Felda Sungai Tengi, a Bersatu leader who also served as a member of the Hulu Selangor Municipal Council in the last general election.
In short, the name Khairul Azhari is not unfamiliar among the residents of KKB, which is expected to facilitate the efforts of PN to 'sell' his name to attract voters in the area.
With the PN secretary-general, Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin, recently suggesting a shift in Indian voter support for the coalition in this by-election, there is a possibility that Khairul could win with a slim majority if the Malay vote continues to favour the PN.
Weaknesses
DAP faction dilemma: Non-Malay vote
Despite Pang being seen as receiving solid support from his party, DAP, and PH, rumours are suggesting that the young candidate, a graduate in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from Universiti Tenaga Nasional (Uniten), is not the preferred choice of local DAP leaders.
With more senior leaders like Mandeep Singh and Malay leaders like Saripah Bakar considered as options, Pang's nomination seems to indicate that the selection is based on a veto power by the DAP Central leadership.
This follows Mandeep's name, who is also the Political Secretary to the Digital Minister Gobind Singh Deo, being mentioned as the most qualified to fill the vacancy left by the late Lee, but was not selected due to allegations of factional conflict between Gobind and DAP secretary-general, Anthony Loke, within the party.
However, Gobind's presence at a Malay DAP branch opening event in KKB alongside Pang might indicate that there is no actual division, as claimed.
Furthermore, Pang’s biggest dilemma focuses on increasing dissatisfaction among Chinese voters, who represent 30 per cent of registered voters in the by-election and 18 per cent of Indian voters, towards the unity government.
MCA's decision to boycott the PH candidate's campaign in the by-election is also seen as not helping Pang's efforts.
"In this by-election, many Chinese voters told me they wanted to vote against (refuse to support PH). They are disappointed with the racial sentiment brought on by Umno leaders at the national level.
"At the same time, many promises from the state government to Chinese traders, such as distributing more stalls at the new KKB public market, have not been fulfilled," said vegetable trader Yap Tung Fah, 57.
Concurrently, the Indian voter campaign not to vote for the PH candidate, launched by former Indian DAP leader P. Ramasamy, has, to some extent, hurt Pang's chances.
"The Indian community, especially estate workers, is facing serious land ownership and housing issues even though applications for land occupation grants and public housing were submitted more than 30 years ago. "Now that PH holds Putrajaya and Selangor, why are our demands not resolved?" said estate worker G Govinda Rao, 63.
Local candidate's status challenged
Stepping into the KKB state election battlefield as a local Malay candidate should have given Khairul and PN a significant advantage. However, not even two days into the campaign, Khairul's image and credibility became questionable.
This is because he was not only embroiled in doubts about the status of his engineering degree certificate obtained from Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP) but also allegations that he owed money to loan sharks, which caught the attention of voters.
Although both personal controversies were promptly denied by Khairul, his image and credibility were somewhat tarnished. This was compounded by PN's recent directive for Khairul's Bersatu campaign team to cancel all exclusive interview appointments with local media.
Additionally, Khairul's campaign as a local candidate, touted by the PN and Bersatu, was also questioned by some residents as inappropriate.
KKB History Association chairman, Md. Ridzuan Idris, 63, claimed that Khairul had no connection at all with the local roots of KKB residents as he was born and raised in Felda Sungai Tengi, a village area located in the Batang Kali state constituency.
"Throughout his service as a councillor in Hulu Selangor, Khairul has never been assigned to the service zones of the local authority within the KKB state constituency.
"The locals here, especially the Malays, have never recognised him as a local," he told Sinar Premium.
In addition to personal controversies, there were rumours that Khairul's selection as an election candidate did not receive the endorsement of Bersatu leaders who support their secretary-general faction, Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin.
He was said to be a candidate favoured by Azmin, who is widely known as the main rival of the Leader of the Opposition in the House of Representatives in the Bersatu mid-year elections for the deputy president position.
However, the presence of Hamzah and Pas secretary-general, Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan, at the PN's inaugural speech event on Sunday night might dispel wild speculation.
ACHIEVEMENT RECORD
Second Klang Valley Project is PH's direction
In addition to Lee's outstanding service record, the announcement by the Selangor Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari in the 2020 Selangor state elections promising that the Hulu Selangor area would become the second Klang Valley area is expected to be PH's pillar to retain the KKB state assembly seat.
With the development of various industrial areas such as Bernam Valley, Bukit Beruntung, Perodua factory in Serendah, and Proton City in Tanjung Malim, former Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Muhammad Mat Taib believes that the construction of the East Coast Rail Line (ECRL) passing through the Hulu Selangor Parliamentary constituency in Serendah would boost the economy of KKB residents to a better level.
"With the ECRL passing through the Hulu Selangor area, besides the planning for the construction of a large inland port in Serendah, it would have a significant economic impact on the surrounding constituencies, including KKB.
"Therefore, if the Anwar-led federal government cooperates with the state government to realise the dream of implementing the second Klang Valley, I think the unity government candidate will have a significant advantage.
"This is because, in the KKB by-election, only PH is seen to have a clear economic direction to develop the constituency, compared to PN, which only plays on extreme political racial sentiments," said Muhammad, who is also the advisor to Umno Selangor.
PN depends on Azmin's achievements
Unlike the united government candidate, not much can be said about PN's achievement record in developing the KKB state assembly constituency.
Although the Hulu Selangor Parliamentary constituency and two state constituencies within it are represented by PN representatives, there were not many economic development agendas that the coalition could "sell" to voters in the less than one-year period the coalition's MPs and two state assembly seats have been serving the people.
Overall, PN relies on the experience and achievements of Azmin, who was once the Selangor Menteri Besar for six years, to outline the economic direction of the coalition if they win the KKB state assembly seat.
The status as the opposition at the federal and state levels also does not help PN much in convincing voters that their candidate can bring about economic change and development locally. As a result, the majority of PN leaders who came to campaign in KKB are more comfortable using the weaknesses of the united government at the national level to attract voters' attention.
Issues such as rising prices of goods and the cost of living, PH's failure to fulfil promises of institutional reforms, and speculation about the rationalisation of fuel subsidies this year have been fully played by PN since the start of the by-election campaign.
They also peddle Malay candidate sentiments to persuade 46 per cent of Malay voters to continue to support PN, as they did in the 2020 Selangor state elections.
PARTY WORK
Three Umno 'old horses' become weapons
Behind claims that the Barisan Nasional (BN) machinery, especially Umno, is less helpful to the unity government candidate's campaign, many are unaware that three veteran party leaders have joined forces and worked hard to campaign and persuade Malay voters in all 16 polling districts (PDM).
These three 'old horses' of Umno were former Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Muhammad Mat Taib; Yayasan Basmi Kemiskinan chairman Datuk Zainal Abidin Sakom and former Hulu Selangor Umno Division Chief Datuk Mohd Isa Abu Kassim.
Starting a campaign to approach Malay voters a week before the candidate nomination day, the combination of Muhammad, also known as Mat Tyson, Zainal Abidin, and Mohd Isa, is said to have chosen to campaign quietly through group speeches and voter outreach programmes from door to door.
This was confirmed by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Central Leadership Council member Datuk Abdullah Sani Abdul Hamid.
"Taib's service record as the Selangor Menteri Besar has indeed helped a lot in the economic development of Hulu Selangor residents. I think his influence is still significant, especially among Umno's veteran supporters.
"I do not rule out the possibility that their presence will add value to PH's efforts to retain the KKB State Assembly seat. Even though Taib and friends can win back at least 10 to 15 per cent of Umno Malay voters, that's already sufficient," said the Tekun Nasional chairman.
Meanwhile, Muhammad, when met by Sinar Premium, believes that a big surprise is likely to occur in the KKB by-election, where Malay votes are believed to no longer favour PN.
"I can feel a wave of Malay voters wanting change in the KKB by-election more clearly than in the Selangor state elections last year.
"Don't be surprised if the PH candidate can win by a much larger majority," he said.
VOTER SENTIMENTS BY ETHNICITY
Indian votes unclear; Malays and Chinese have made choices
For more than a week, Sinar Premium was stationed in Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB), the atmosphere of the election campaign among residents seemed rather subdued, with political parties opting for small-scale campaigning rather than grand rallies.
KKB residents also seemed less enthusiastic about the campaigning approach undertaken by the competing candidates, even though various welfare programmes and contributions were organised by them.
Behind the lukewarm atmosphere of the by-election campaign, the majority of voters have shown a tendency to support certain parties.
For the majority of the 12,182 Chinese voters, most of them were inclined to maintain their support for the PH candidate, despite some of them being disappointed with the DAP leaders' stance in addressing several important issues within the Unity Government.
KKB resident Sun Peng Hock, 75, said that although the Chinese community was upset with the less aggressive stance of DAP leaders in questioning the actions of a few Umno leaders stirring up racial issues, they had no other choice.
"We cannot allow the green wave (Perikatan Nasional-PN) to continue threatening the future of non-Malay voters," said Sun, who voted in the Kerling PDM.
For the 18,872 Malay voters, there is a strong tendency for this segment to support the PN candidate based on their potential excitement at potentially receiving the first Malay State Assemblyman in 50 years.
A grocery store owner at the KKB public market, Ali Md Alip, 69, acknowledged that PN's decision to field a Malay candidate has indeed raised the spirits of a majority of Malay voters to come out and vote.
"We have long accepted non-Malay representatives. Not that I want to say their service is not good, but the option of choosing a Malay state assembly representative allows Malays to have their representation," he said.
The same sentiment was also shared by Bandar Baru Utama Batang Kali Housing Estate resident Rushaizi Rusdi, 52, who believed that the election of the first Malay state assembly representative would be crucial to resolving various local issues involving the respective communities.
On the contrary, Noorzamira Zulkifli, 38, felt that the ethnic status of a representative should not be the main factor in voting.
"Ethnicity should not be a reason for choosing a representative; instead, the representative's track record or the party's direction should be measured," said Noorzamira, who lives in Bandar KKB.
Similarly, for more than 1,200 Orang Asli voters, the majority of them are believed to lean towards the PH candidate in this by-election.
"The majority of the Orang Asli community still hopes for various infrastructure developments and basic amenities in their villages. For now, we are still giving the current government a chance to fulfil our requests," said Ramis Ramsit, 24.
However, Indian votes were still unclear and had not shown a clear pattern of preference for any particular party.
In urban areas, most Indian voters believe that the status quo of electing a state assembly representative from the unity government should be maintained for the sake of continuity in planning for the development of their community.
Truck driver K Chinnaiya, 67, said that Indian voters should not be influenced by sentiments rejecting the current government played by Indian leaders from outside KKB.
However, a plantation worker who declined to be named informed that the majority of lower-class Indian communities are likely to abstain from voting or switch their support to PN.
"Unless the Selangor Menteri Besar gives assurance to resolve local issues involving the Indian community here as soon as possible," he said.
CAMPAIGN SURVEY SUMMARY
Six PDMs identified as 'grey' areas
With only 48 hours left in the KKB state assembly by-election campaign, anything is still possible.
Based on a survey of all 16 PDMs in the KKB state assembly, six PDMs have been identified as 'grey' areas where victory is difficult to determine whether it will be in favour of the PN or the united government.
The six PDM areas are Nigel Gardener Estate, Bandar Baru Kuala Kubu Baharu, Kampung Air Jernih, Kerling, Jalan Kuala Kali, and Batu 30 Hulu Yam, all of which are mixed areas.
For the 'white' areas that are expected to remain under the control of the PH candidate because they have a majority of Chinese voters and a mixed population, a total of seven PDMs have been identified. These PDM areas are Kampung Baharu Kerling, Kampung Baharu Kuala Kubu Baharu, Lembah Beringin, Kampung Baharu Rasa, Pekan Rasa, Kampung Baharu Batang Kali, and Hulu Yam Lama.
Meanwhile, for the 'black' areas controlled by PN in the 2020 Selangor state elections, a total of three PDMs are listed, namely Ampang Pecah, Pertak, and Bandar Utama Batang Kali.
However, former Bangi Member of Parliament Dr Ong Kian Min predicted that the competition in this by-election was very intense, with the votes of the three PDM areas likely to be a key indicator of the winning party.
He said that any candidate from PN or PH had the opportunity to win this by-election if they could capture the Bandar Utama Batang Kali (Ligamas) PDM, which consisted mainly of Malay voters, the Ampang Pecah PDM, and the Kerling PDM, each of which was a mixed area.
"So far, the chances for PN and PH candidates are still 50-50," said the former deputy minister from DAP.