SHAH ALAM - Despite the Pelangai State Assembly by-election not being a deciding factor in changing the Pahang state and Federal government's status quo, it remains as an important indicator to measure the support of Malays towards BN primarily Umno and the unity government.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said if BN candidate Datuk Amizar Abu Adam lose, it would show the deficit of support from Malays towards Umno that was falling off as Pelangai was a stronghold for the party in Pahang.
He said the loss would influence the psychology and confidence of the leadership on how BN assemblymen or MPs would defend the party in a Malay majority area such as Pelangai if the chance slipped to the hands of Perikatan Nasional (PN).
However, Hisomuddin said at the moment, Amizar on paper could win a majority as voters, especially Felda settlers were loyal BN supporters while Pas machineries had yet to breach the Umno stronghold.
Hisomuddin said BN which had Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) support was now in a comfortable position and had the advantage to win compared to PN candidate and independent candidate Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli.
"However, I don’t reject the possibility of a change in the support pattern or the green wave from the youth and foreign voters who previously sided with PN in the final moments leading to the polling day.
"The green wave, however, was not at a point strong enough to aid PN candidate Cikgu Kasim (Kasim Samat) to reach the finish line in the Pelangai by-election on Oct 7,” he told Sinar Premium.
Pahang Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) branch political analyst Dr Che Hamdan Che Mohd Razali said BN and PN had equal chances in the by-election.
He did not reject the possibility of BN or PN winning with a slight majority and it depended on the total number of voter turnout.
However, he stated BN’s fate might change if the government failed to give an explanation for the multitude of current issues which included the rising cost of living, price hikes and lack of rice supplied in local markets.
"If BN lost it shows the green wave is not only growing stronger in a Malay majority state such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, but it had continued to spread to other states including Pahang.
"Even though PN’s victory would not affect the current government status quo as BN still holds 16 state seats, PH (eight) and 17 other state seats were held by opposition representatives, but it can tarnish the image of the unity government,” he said.
Che Hamdan said PN were currently in the lead for the Pelangai by-election as their machinery was more effective compared to BN which was holding on and was forced to answer the issues raised by the opposition, especially on the price hike and rising cost of living.
He said the BN machinery was forced to answer the questions raised by locals and voters towards the former menteri besar not developing the Pelangai state assembly area while becoming a representative.
"We saw the national issues such as cost of living, price hikes and the lack of rice supply being played by PN leaders as a local issue,” he said.