SHAH ALAM - The Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition has the advantage of defending the Pelangai State Legislative Assembly seat in the by-election on Oct 7, according to a political analyst.
Senior Lecturer of Political Science from Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Mujibu Abd Muis said this is due to two factors; Pelangai is Umno's traditional seat and it is located in the Bentong parliament, which has a significant number of non-Malay voters.
He said based on preliminary estimates, the "vote bank" (support votes) for the two parties will give them an advantage, so Umno, which is expected to re-contest in the area, is likely to maintain its victory.
"I see that the sentiment and influence of the 15th General Election (GE15) is gone and the waves caused by GE15 and the six state elections are diminishing," he said.
"It is true that many Malay seats in Pahang fell to the Perikatan Nasional (PN) before, but it must be seen that the three-cornered competition makes the split votes more significant.
"Malay votes go to Malay parties while non-Malay votes go to PH. At that time, Umno had to fight three corners.
"But if the competition is two-cornered this time, we expect the voting pattern to return to balance. The chance for Umno to win is good, with the advantage of being the incumbent and PH having a base in Bentong," he said when contacted by Sinar yesterday.
However, he noted that the situation may be different if you look at the candidate factors and the turnout.
He said the turnout percentage could influence the results because the motivation to vote this time is expected to be less than before.
The Pelangai state by-election was called following the death of BN representative Datuk Seri Johari Harun in a plane crash in Elmina, Shah Alam, Selangor on July 17.
The area has 16,456 registered voters and has 10 villages, three Felda plan lands, three estates and four Kampung Baru Cina.
Pelangai State Assembly is known as a stronghold of Umno and also the seat of the former Pahang Menteri Besar Tan Sri Adnan Yaakob (1986-2022), before being replaced by Johari.