Even though Pakatan Harapan (PH) won big in the recent by-elections for the Pulai parliamentary seat and the Simpang Jeram state assembly constituency last Saturday, it does not necessarily mean that the party representing the Unity Government will easily win in the upcoming Pelangai by-election in Pahang on Oct 7.
This is due to the demographic composition of voters in the Pelangai state constituency being vastly different from Pulai and Simpang Jeram, which are strongholds for Pakatan Harapan (PH) due to a majority of their population being non-Malay.
For reference, the Pulai parliamentary constituency has 167,108 registered voters, with Malays making up 44.17 percent, while the rest are other ethnic groups, including Chinese (40.47 percent), Indians (12.3 per cent), and others (3.05 per cent).
The Simpang Jeram state assembly constituency has 40,488 registered voters, with Malays comprising 51.87 per cent, followed by Chinese (44.58 per cent), Indians (2.55 per cent), and others (0.99 per cent).
Ilham Centre Chief Researcher, Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim, explained that while the party representing the Unity Government won in the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections, the momentum does not necessarily continue in Pelangai due to the differing voter demographics in the area.
He pointed out that 70 per cent of the 16,456 voters in the Pelangai state constituency are Malays, with Chinese making up approximately 20 per cent, and the remainder being from other ethnic groups.
Therefore, Mohd Yusri elaborated that whether Barisan Nasional (BN) or Perikatan Nasional (PN) wins the Pelangai state constituency in the by-election depends on how much support they can garner from Malay voters on polling day.
"However, if we look at the wave of Malay support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Pulai and Simpang Jeram, it also shows an increase, but it is not as strong as what happened in the East Coast and Northern Peninsula in the 15th General Election (GE15) last time.
"In fact, PH's victory in Pulai and Simpang Jeram was largely attributed to non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, because the majority of Malay voters supported PN.
"So, the deciding factor for whether BN or PN wins in the Pelangai state constituency by-election will be the core Umno vote, which is Malay, while the 20 per cent of Chinese voters will be an addition if they are effectively organised by DAP," he told Sinar
The Pelangai state assembly seat was declared vacant following the passing of its incumbent, Datuk Seri Johari Harun, in a plane crash in Elmina, Shah Alam, which also claimed the lives of nine others on Aug 17.
In the GE 15, the late Johari won the Pelangai state seat with a majority of 4,048 votes, defeating PN candidate Kasim Samat, who received 3,260 votes, PH's Ahmed Wafiuddin Shamsuri (2,031 votes), and Pejuang's Isa Ahmad (65 votes).
Elaborating further, Mohd Yusri said that on paper, BN has a good chance of retaining the Pelangai state seat because it is a Umno stronghold that was previously held by former Pahang Chief Minister Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob.
"Although on paper, BN has a good chance of retaining the Pelangai state seat, the Unity Government cannot underestimate the factor of increasing Malay support for PN, which is growing, including in Pahang in the last GE15," he said.
He also mentioned that BN might face pressure if PN fields Adnan as their candidate.
"I believe if Datuk Seri Adnan is nominated by the PN in the Pelangai state constituency, he may not necessarily win because his influence is not as strong as it used to be after a long period of inactivity in politics," he said.
Meanwhile, a Senior Lecturer at the Center for Perdana Faculty of Technology and Informatics at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali, added that the victory in the by-elections has fired up the PH machinery to assist BN in defending the Pelangai state seat in the upcoming by-election.
Mazlan said that he sees a bright chance for BN to retain the Pelangai state seat because they managed to win in the area with a fairly large majority despite facing competition from all sides in the GE15.
"Although PN may nominate Adnan as their candidate in the Pelangai state constituency, it does not necessarily mean that he can win because his influence is not as strong as before after being inactive in politics for a long time," he said.