GEORGETOWN - Perikatan Nasional's (PN) strong showing in the 15th general election (GE15) has sent an uncomfortable signal to the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-BN coalition.
This is because the coalition was almost completely wiped out in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.
Former Penang DAP deputy chairman P Ramasamy said this was expected, and that PN's prediction that they would give a strong challenge in Selangor was almost spot on, as PH-BN lost their two-thirds majority in the state.
He said that even though PH-BN won two-thirds majority in Penang, the coalition's majority decreased.
Ramasamy said that without DAP, PH-BN may have lost even more seats in Penang.
He added that PH-BN Malay candidates would have lost without the support of non-Malay voters, especially those who support DAP.
"In this sense, DAP is acting as the kingmaker. How long this will continue depends on the direction of the unity government.
"The question is whether DAP has enough moral and political influence to push the direction of the unity government?" he said when contacted on Monday.
He added that PH-BN in Penang is seen as being led by DAP, as the party won all 19 seats it contested.
"At the same time, DAP used its influence to enable PKR to win seven of 13 seats contested, Amanah with one seat, and Umno with two seats.
"The question is how long can DAP carry the non-Malay votes for a party that has no Malay voter support? That remains to be seen," he said.
Ramasamy, who was the former Penang deputy chief minister II, said that Pas's strong influence among Malays is clear, as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's strong influence in the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency has crumbled due to Pas's penetration.
"DAP is under a lot of pressure to care for and protect the rights of non-Malays.
"This is why DAP won all seats, not because of Malay voters.
"PN looks like a clear winner in the state elections. It is clear that a large portion of Malay votes went to PN.
"It's not about the victories of each coalition as a whole, but the total number of seats won and the percentage of support," he said.
Ramasamy added that this did not happen to PKR, Amanah, or Umno, as they all lost to PN except in Negeri Sembilan.
"In fact, there is a polarisation in the voting pattern in terms of ethnicity and to some extent in terms of class. The voting patterns according to class must be studied.
"Although non-Malays gave their support to PH-BN, it is clear that Malays are not supporting them.
"A detailed analysis would show that many PH-BN candidates were elected due to the support of non-Malays, and Negeri Sembilan was perhaps an exception.
"However, it is clear that the situation could change rapidly after PN's clever breakthrough," he said.
He said that several important lessons can be learned from the 2023 elections, among them the increasing polarization in Malaysian elections.
"A large portion of non-Malays voted for PH-BN, while Malays supported PN. This pattern has been developing since GE15. The unity government has been put in an embarrassing position.
"Despite the government not toppling, there are political implications. The other lesson is that Umno is seen as a liability to the unity government.
"However, this does not mean the end for Umno, as there is room for them to improve themselves and prevent further decline," he said.
The Penang PH-BN coalition celebrated their victory after forming a new state government following their win in 29 of the 40 state seats in the election last Saturday.
The results were not only enough to form a unity government (state government), but they also achieved a two-thirds majority.
The PH-BN coalition won 29 seats, which was more than the 21 seats needed to form a state government with a simple majority out of the 40 seats contested.
The victory proved that PH remains in power for the fourth term in a row.
DAP, as expected, was the biggest contributor, winning all 19 seats it contested.