SHAH ALAM – Merdeka Center's programme director Ibrahim Suffian has noted a general trend of continued Malay voter inclination towards Perikatan Nasional (PN), even before the DAP's list of candidates was announced.
This raises questions about whether Malay votes will swing to PN in the upcoming state election in Penang, a region that DAP has historically dominated.
Ibrahim pointed out that most DAP candidates will contest in predominantly non-Malay districts, indicating that the party may not be concerned about PN gaining more Malay votes.
"Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will win in Penang, but there is a concern to get a representative mix of lawmakers to be reflective of the communities there," he told Sinar Daily today.
On addressing the narrative of "solve your own state problems (Kelantan and Terengganu) first before taking over Penang during the campaigning period," Ibrahim stated that PN will need to counter such arguments if they are to win over voters in Penang.
He noted that sentiment alone won't be sufficient for victory.
Regarding Gerakan's potential in Penang state polls, Ibrahim believes the party will not make any inroads in the non-Malay community and will need to rely on Malay support under the PN banner.
He added that there are no signs of non-Malay voters warming up to PN at this point, and Gerakan has little chance of winning in the upcoming state election as it has consistently lost to DAP since 2008.
National Council of Professors chairman Professor Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin predicted that PN will target Seberang Perai or Butterworth areas to win more seats.
He also countered arguments against parties like "solve your own problems," stating that it's a form of generalisation and may not apply to every party, as they have their respective voter characteristics.
Professor of Political Sociology Sivamurugan Pandian noted that Malay votes are fragmented and divided based on the 15th General Election (GE15) result, particularly in Kepala Batas, Permatang Pauh, and Tasek Gelugor constituencies.
He suggested that PN might make inroads in areas bordering Kedah but stressed the importance of strong candidates and the need for a Unity Government to capture support throughout the campaign period.
Sivamurugan also discussed PN's approach in countering attacks on the mentioning of 'sentiment,' stating that they might need to offer a new deal for Penangites, considering the mix of different voters based on ethnicity and social class.
"Sentiment versus policies will be significant tools used in the state election campaign," he said.
On whether PH will be worried about PN's good momentum in the political arena as seen from GE15 Proffesor Ismail Sualman from Universiti Teknologi Mara Faculty of Communication and Media Studies pointed out that the federal government may face a boomerang impact from the propaganda thrown at PN to stay in power.
On areas PN is targeting to win seats in the upcoming state election, Ismail stated that PH performed well with Chinese and Indian votes in Penang during the last general election.
"Malay-dominated areas in Penang may be torn between voting for PH or PN, and the outcome may depend on sentiment and candidate appeal," he added.