SHAH ALAM - Perikatan Nasional's (PN) chance of wresting Selangor from Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the next state election will be difficult if they only rely on the Malay voter segment and issues of race, religion and the royal institution (3R) to win votes.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said although PN was said to have controlled more than 50 per cent of the Malay votes in Selangor in the 15th General Election (GE15) last year, it was almost impossible for them to win all 34 Malay majority seats in the state polls this time.
He said this was due to PN's main problem in Selangor now as they were too focused on the 34 Malay majority seats only.
Meanwhile, he said Parti Gerakan was in the weakest position and unable to help PN win in any of the seats with a majority of mixed voters and the areas it would contest in Selangor, most of which were now controlled by PH.
"Thus, if they want to seize Selangor, they do not just need to win most of the 34 Malay majority seats, but PN must win some seats in non-Malay majority areas in the next polls," he told Sinar Premium.
Hisommudin said it was also tricky for PN to win in Selangor because its Malay voter segment had a more open mindset or psychography and was not the same as the voters in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, which were now its strongholds.
"The political dynamic factor that happened after GE15, especially the formation of the unity government consisting of PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) is also a big challenge for PN to surpass the simple majority number of 29 state assembly seats and take over the Selangor state government in the next election," he said.
He said another factor that determined PN's victory in Selangor was the support of young voters and those on the fence.
However, he said, the current PN situation had gotten more tensed after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim ordered the police and the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) to take strict action against any party playing the 3R issue during the polls campaign.
He said the restrictions imposed by the MCMC, including the act of taking down posts on TikTok accounts by PN supporters, caused the 3R campaign in cyberspace dominated by the opposition to be no longer as sharp as it was during GE15.
"During the last GE15, TikTok was entirely dominated by campaign materials made by influencers inclined to PN, but for now, there is none.
"I also searched for pro-PN influencer accounts that went viral during the last GE15 but most of them have been deactivated either by the owner himself or the authorities because they touched on the 3R issue," he said.
Hisommudin also said PH-BN's mistake during GE15 was not focusing on social media campaigns, especially TikTok, thus causing them to be lacking in support of young people and 18-year-old voters.