SHAH ALAM - Although Barisan Nasional (BN) is only contesting 45 per cent of the 245 State Legislative Assembly seats in the upcoming state elections, it was more than what the coalition received compared to how many it should have had.
O2 Research Malaysia chief researcher Anis Anwar Suhaimi said 45 per cent of the seats distributed by Pakatan Harapan (PH) was much higher than the percentage of BN's win in the Parliamentary seats and seven State Legislative Assemblies in the 15th General Election (GE15).
Based on the GE15 statistical data released by the Election Commission (EC), Anis revealed that the percentage of BN's winning rate in 222 Parliamentary seats in GE15 was around 23.4 per cent while the percentage of the State Legislative Assembly seats in seven states where two of them succeeded in forming a government, was 38.75 per cent in Pahang and 20.38 per cent in Perak.
"Based on the performance data and statistics in GE15, BN should be satisfied with the number of state assembly seats for the six state elections this time because the numbers were realistic with the reality of the coalition's achievements in the last election.
"This is because the number of seats won by BN in GE15 was around 23.4 per cent at the Parliament level, while the percentage of state assembly seats won by them in the state the coalition formed the government is 38.75 per cent in Pahang and 20.38 per cent in Perak," he said.
He was commenting on BN president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's statement that the coalition was expected to contest 45 per cent of the 245 state assembly seats in six states which will hold the elections soon.
The Deputy Prime Minister said the decision was made based on the current position of seats won by BN and PH in GE15.
Following that, many political leaders gave a skeptical view including former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin who thought that Umno-BN has fallen into a dark abyss after the formation of the unity government.
Commenting further, Anis said he was confident that the results of the state election will not have a direct impact on the longevity of the unity government, even though BN may lose badly in a large number of seats.
He said the state elections only determined the formation of the government at the state level and not influence the Putrajaya administration.
"Furthermore, Zahid as the Umno chairman and BN President holds the power to determine BN's en bloc support based on a document signed by BN candidates and MPs before GE15.
"It is difficult to predict Zahid to use his authority so Umno could attract support from the unity government because he was among the important architects towards the formation of the PH-BN new political coalition who was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister," he said.
Anis projected that the extraordinary situation of the fall of the government led by the Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would only happen if Zahid was forced to resign after the state elections in response to the defeat of BN-PH in the state under PH before.
"If the BN-PH coalition loses in the next state election, it is possible that Zahid would be asked to resign as president, which eventually opens up space for BN leaders who replaced him to pull back the en bloc support for Anwar," Anis said.
Umno veteran chairman Datuk Othman Desa on the other hand, said there was no point if Umno-BN managed to obtain a large number of seats in the state elections since the party's chances of winning was slim.
He said the most important thing was to strengthen the cooperation between the BN and PH machinery to ensure candidates representing the unity government won all the seats contested later.
"What's the point of getting hundreds of seats, but losing the state elections.
"All BN-Umno supporters and PH have to remember that we now share the power under the unity government, instead of being able to rule solo like before," he said.
Political researcher Professor Wong Chin Huat agreed with the view that PH has the rights to get more seats than BN in the election in six states.
He said PH's achievement record in GE14 proved that they won more state assembly seats than BN with PH winning 108 out of 132 seats, while BN only won 43 seats.
"PH succeeded in forming a government in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, compared to BN defending Perlis and Pahang in GE14.
"If PH contests 45 per cent of the state election seats, that amount represents an additional amount of two seats held by the coalition.
"So 55 per cent or 135 seats is more ideal reflecting PH's strength,"he said.