It is predicted that the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) has no chance of winning even a single seat in the upcoming state election if they move solo or compete alone without cooperating with any other political parties.
In fact, political analysts also expect the party led by Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman to not only be defeated but to also lose all deposits in all seats contested in the state election because they have few loyal supporters compared to other giant political parties.
This follows Muda's latest stance, which stated that they wish to compete solo without cooperating with any party, whether Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), or Perikatan Nasional (PN), in the next state election.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said it's not wrong for Muda to go solo, but they have a slim possibility of winning any State Legislative Assembly seats in the six states holding the state polls.
"In order to fulfil the democratic practise, Muda's consideration to compete in the state election is not wrong, but there would be an issue in achieving victory for the party.
"The possibility of their candidates losing their deposits is very high in this state election, as it is a common rule in politics that parties with a small number of seats are not regarded highly by voters, including parties that win many seats," he told Sinar Premium.
Previously, Muda information chief Luqman Long revealed that so far there has been no negotiation with PH in regards to their cooperation or the number of seats and areas the party will contest in the upcoming state election.
Luqman said this, refuting a statement issued by Selangor PH chairman Amirudin Shari that Muda will continue to cooperate with the coalition in the next state election.
Meanwhile, Syed Saddiq refused to confirm or deny the allegation that Muda will compete solo in the state polls when contacted by Sinar Premium.
However, Syed Saddiq asked the media to be patient and to wait for the official statement that Muda will issue in the near future.
In the meantime, Hisomuddin stressed that Muda needs to accept and understand the reality that, after the 15th General Election (GE15), they have failed to attract young voters to vote for PH.
In fact, Syed Saddiq's own votes and victory at Muar parliamentary seat in GE15 depended on votes from PH supporters rather than the party's supporters.
"After GE15, Muda also faced a dilemma as to whether they should stay together with PH, which ignores the party's role and existence in politics now.
"Muda's attitude also seems to go against the government's direction, causing the party to be in a complicated position.
"In my opinion, it would be difficult for Muda, with its current performance and stance, to win a seat in the next state polls," he explained.
Following that, Hisomuddin stressed that Muda needs to set their stance clearly on whether they want to be with the PH-BN or PN coalition in the future.
"Muda can run solo if they have the resolution and courage, where generally most small parties will have to go through a difficult road to survive until the 16th General Election (GE16)," he said.
So far, Muda secretary-general Amira Aisya Abd Aziz was the only leader from the party who managed to win the party's third seat in the Johor state election in March 2022.
Just like Syed Saddiq, Amira received support from PH voters when she contested for the Puteri Wangsa seat.
Amira won with a majority vote of 7,114 in a six-cornered fight.
Muda's future is gloomy.
The deputy head (strategy) of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Asia headquarters at Sunway University Prof Wong Chin Huat also agreed with Hisomuddin.
He stressed that based on the 'First-Past-the-Post' election system and today's coalition politics, Muda's future has indeed become glommy like Gerakan in the BN era, despite its great potential to attract young people's interest.
"PH will find it difficult to give seats to Muda because they now have to distribute the seats contested by BN, thus making it difficult to involve Muda in GE16 later," he said.
Wong also questioned Muda's strength to be the second-strongest contender after the PH-BN coalition if they fail to win any seats in the state election.
"If Muda succeeds in winning a seat in a three-cornered fight with PH-BN and PN, then PH will have no choice but to negotiate with Muda to face GE16 later.
"If Muda only manages to get third place in the state polls and loses the deposits in all contested parties, then Muda might be 'buried' after," he said.
Wong said the two factors that will determine Muda's performance in a three-cornered fight if they go solo in the next state election are the number of seats that they will be contesting.
Secondly, Muda's ability to win the hearts of PAMU (Parti Aku Malas Undi) to vote for them in the next state election However, if Muda tries to contest in many seats, it might be seen as a spoiler for PH-BN, as their campaign will clash with the coalition.
"As a result, Muda will scare PH's loyal supporters until they suffer a great loss similar to Gerak Independent and Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) in the previous GE15. Muda might be able to win one or two seats if they manage to attract votes from this PAMU group who are fed up with PH-BN and PN by highlighting issues faced by youth," he explained.