SHAH ALAM - The stability of any coalition government is inherently fragile, as changes in alliances can alter the balance of power and potentially lead to its collapse.
According to political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Jayum Anak Jawan from Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), this fragility stems from the fact that the unity government lacks a simple majority and relies on support from various parties.
Jayum made these remarks in response to Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli's dismissal of claims that the federal government would crumble after the state polls.
"Rafizi Ramli’s political observation has faltered since he becomes part of the new unity government.
"He is unlike his former self, sharp and focused," he told Sinar Daily.
Recently, Pas deputy president Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man highlighted the uniqueness of the upcoming state elections and suggested that Perikatan Nasional (PN) emerging victorious in five out of six states could create a rift within the unity government.
In response to Tuan Ibrahim and Rafizi's statements, Jayum dismissed them as politically sensational remarks without substantial empirical evidence to support them.
"The DAP-led coalition government in Penang is not expected to lose its grip on power. The Chinese community is unlikely to abandon DAP, and with the support of its coalition partners, DAP will continue to lead in Penang.
"In Negeri Sembilan, it is improbable that BN or its opponents will secure victory since PKR-PH and BN currently hold the majority of seats there.
"As for Kedah, it is a weak Pas-led state due to its limited number of seats compared to its allies," he explained.
Therefore, Jayum concluded that Tuan Ibrahim's observations regarding the state elections could have been more accurate.
Meanwhile, political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri from the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) suggested that if PN were to win more than three states, it could potentially cause some divisions, but not to the extent of collapsing the government.
"I believe the status quo will prevail, although Selangor and Penang may experience reduced majorities.
"PN may gain more seats on the mainland side of Penang and in northern Selangor, as well as in semi-urban areas such as Dengkil," Syaza said.
About Rafizi's remarks, political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun highlighted that Rafizi's vested interest lies in maintaining the current government's stability, thus necessitating his dismissal of any claims suggesting otherwise.
"If PN were to win five or all six states, Malay MPs currently supporting the government would have to reconsider their political future.
"They may choose to switch their support to PN individually or in groups, potentially leading to the downfall of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim," he explained.