SHAH ALAM - Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang's confidence in gaining voter support during the upcoming state polls, as was obtained during the 15th general election (GE 15), may be overly ambitious, say analysts.
This comes after Hadi, the Marang MP said he believed that the rakyat’s support for PN remain unchange despite states under Perikatan Nasional coalition claim to be under pressure by the Federal Government.
Political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Jayum Anak Jawan said Malay political support has shifted towards various political parties including Pakatan Harapan (PH), DAP, Umno, and Bersatu.
"A lot has changed since GE15. In fact, changes in the pattern of Malay votes started much earlier than that, perhaps back into 2018 (GE14).
"However, since 2018, Pas has been gaining ground in the Peninsular due to its support and alliance with many political parties," Jayum said, who is also the newly appointed member to National Unity Advisory Council Malaysia.
Furthermore, he added that Pas has lost its political standing in its own traditional states of Kelantan and Terengganu.
"It is too presumptuous for Pas to think that it will continue to gain ground this time around.
"I also believe if Pas can maintain its leadership in Kedah, that would be considered an achievement. It is not expected to have a surge in political support in other Malay majority states.
"Kelantan and Terengganu, being Malay states with Malay populations reaching as high as 90 percent, have their unique dynamics and considerations," Jayum told Sinar Daily.
He believed that political parties have not taken any effective measures to attract Malay support to their side.
"Neither has PKR which is the backbone of government at the federal level. Neither has Umno which plays second fiddle to PKR and PH.
"Now that Bersatu is out of power, it could be hard to draw greater support among the Malays.
"It might be just good if it can retain its constituent support to continue and ensure the survival of Bersatu as one of the four forces in the Peninsular Malay political game scenario," he added.
Jayum added that all political parties will be entering the state general elections on an equal footing, without any party having a significant political advantage.
"Although PKR and PH are the backbone of the federal government, there is really nothing that the coalition's leader has done to draw more Malay support to its side," he added.
He further added that Bersatu should not be considered an underdog in the upcoming power struggle that will take place in the state general elections across six states.
Six states - Selangor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Negeri Sembilan and Penang have agreed to hold state elections simultaneously.
The International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Associate Professor DrSyaza Shukri said the green wave was still strong in Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah.
However, the strenght of green wave remains unknown.
"In GE15, the "green wave" support was primarily driven by first-time voters, including Undi18 (youth voters) and those who were previously unregistered. They were influenced by arguments propagated on social media that Islam would be jeopardised under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.
"Now that PH has been in government for six months, Islam is still thriving. So the green wave sentiment is not as strong as in GE15, but it still cannot be ignored," Syaza added.
Political analyst at Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM), Dr Abdul Aziz Azizam also agreed with Jayum and Aziz views.
He said Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang's statements were a promotional pitch intended to inspire and boost the morale and confidence of PN voters.
However, he said the current government consistently fails to effectively address issues concerning the interests of the majority community, the Malays.
"In such a situation, this group may opt for an alternative to the ruling coalition, and at that point, it would no longer be a green wave but rather a Malay wave."
"As seen in previous general elections, it was Pas party that benefited from such a wave," Aziz stressed.
In GE15, PN won 73 seats, with 49 seats won by Pas.