SHAH ALAM – With less than 48 hours left before Malaysians cast their ballots, a think-tank has predicted the result of the 15th General Election (GE15); declaring Pakatan Harapan (PH) as the winner of the November 19 polls -- at least in the Peninsular.
In its electoral forecast, Emir Research, projected that PH will win 94 parliamentary seats of the total 165 constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia, followed by Barisan Nasional (BN):46 seats; Perikatan Nasional (PN): 24 seats and Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA): 1 seat.
"The projections are based on a turnout rate of 77 per cent. This turnout rate was derived based on poll aggregation that includes Emir Research own projections,” stated its CEO and President, Dr Rais Hussin.
The PH-favourable result was not entirely surprising as Rais had on October 13 joined PKR after quitting Pribumi Bersatu a week prior.
Malaysia has 222 parliamentary seats; with 57 of it located in the Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak, however, Emir Research did do a forecast on the electoral outcomes of the said two states.
Expectedly, Emir Research predicted a victorious result for PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in Tambun along with the defeat of every single party president in BN, namely Umno’s Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, MCA’s Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong and MIC’s Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran.
Rising star, Khairy Jamaluddin of Umno was also expected to lose in the Sungai Buloh seat.
However, Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hassan and vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will, respectively win in Rembau and Bera.
On GTA, the firm, contended that only Pejuang’s Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad will be the coalition’s sole winner, defending his incumbent parliamentary seat of Langkawi.
With that being said, some the projections by Emir Research did not gel with Sinar Daily’s observation at ground zero.
For example, the sentiment in several of the Malay heartlands – specifically; Perlis, Kedah and Perak – were very unfavourable towards PH with a seemingly resounding voters remorse reverberating among those who had, for the first time, voted for PH in the 2018 General Election.
While it may not be accurate, it is what is being said on the ground.
And yet, Emir Research predicted that PH would win seven of the 15 seats in Kedah; 14 of the 24 seats in Perak; and six of the 14 seats in Pahang.
Nonetheless, the firm did furnish a rather apt outcome in the two east coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu; predicting zilch inroads by PH, essentially replicating the coalition’s total wipe out in said states in the 14th General Elections.