SHAH ALAM - Despite abandoning talks with the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) party and contesting under party logo in the coming Johor elections, PKR still faces an uphill battle to deliver seats for the PH coalition, say political pundits.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said PKR's main barrier to victory is Umno as the biggest Malay party strengthens machinery by bringing in warlords to influence outstation voters to vote on March 12 polling day.
"BN's machinery is in place and is strong as they encourage old-timers to influence their children and their grandchildren to return home to vote.
"The momentum of luring outstation voters to cast a vote is strong," Awang Azman told Sinar Daily.
Furthermore, PAS and Bersatu, both under Perikatan Nasional, will cause votes to split, weakening the opposition and giving the upper hand to Umno who is likely to win.
Senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs Oh Ei Sun however pointed out it was appropriate for PKR to not accommodate Muda’s seat allocations as the new party is likely to contest in urban seats, which are considered winnable seats to PKR.
"It is difficult to accommodate Muda because the party appeals to mostly to Malay, Chinese and Indians in urban seats and they do not want the rural Malay seats. If PKR coordinates with Muda, they will have to yield to urban, making it easier for Muda to win the seats.
"PKR would have fewer seats or no seats at all,’’ he told Sinar Daily.
In terms of PKR’s candidates, Oh stated that the party could stand to have some advantage by deploying former education minister Maszlee Malik to contest in the Layang Layang state seat.
However, Maszlee's influence in the state polls remains to be seen..
Akademi Nusantara senior fellow (strategic research) Azmi Hassan said it is still a tall order for the opposition to win Johor polls as they remain divided with PKR using their own flag while the remaining two parties - DAP and Amanah - campaigning under the PH logo.
Now with Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman-led Muda contesting at 6 opposition stronghold state seats offered by DAP and Amanah, a move to attract first time Undi18 voters, Azmi said it is likely to benefit both sides.
"The reason Amanah and DAP gave Muda the good seats is to attract youths to vote for the opposition while the new party that was just registered in December benefits as it makes a breakthrough in its first elections," he told Sinar Daily.
Due to that, he said Muda should be "grateful" for the opportunity given to contest in the good seats and make peace with PKR even though talks to find a win-win situation for seats in the run-up to the Johor polls came to a deadlock.
The opposition, he said, need to stay united if they plan to win against the "giant" Barisan Nasional as it is expected to win a "comfortable" majority.
He also suggested for PH work with former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad-led Pejuang to avoid splitting votes.
"Pejuang is not expected to win any seats but will surely split votes," he said, referring to Pejuang's announcement to contest at 42 out of 56 seats.